The Orioles were 14 games above .500 (42-28) on June 21, 2005. That’s the best the Orioles have been since 1997, when Surhoff, Anderson, Ripken, Bordick, etc,  were playing. If they win today, they will be 14 games above .500. In all of Major League Baseball, the Orioles are ranked:

• 1st in Home Runs
• 1st in Bullpen ERA
• 1st in Saves
• 3rd in Batting Average Against
• 5th in Slugging Percentage
• 6th in Runs Scored
• 6th in Team ERA

Oh, and tied for 1st in Wins.

So, are the Orioles for real? Vegas isn’t convinced as the Nationals (-157) are heavily favored today, much of which could be attributed to Strasburg’s appearance at home. But, Strasburg is coming off the worst outing of 2012 (due to Icy Hot genitalia), but should rebound barring any reactant chemicals contacting his sensitive areas.

So, who wins today? Chen has faced some of the best line-ups in baseball and hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs. The Orioles bullpen is lights out. The difference in the game today will be the middle of the order for the Orioles. Yes, Strasburg’s really good, but Hardy, Markakis, Jones, and Wieters can hit the ball far. If any one of them gets a pitch to hit, the ball has a very good chance of making its way over a fence.

The Nationals line-up has been anemic and facing Chen doesn’t help. The Taiwanese left-hander allows base-runners, but manages them well. Washington is hitting .222 with runners in scoring position. Look for the Nationals to string some hits together, but strand a ton of runners.

Prediction – Orioles win 3-2

1. Albert Pujols, LAA

This is the lowest his value has been or will be this season. He has hit home runs in consecutive games to raise his total to three. I would make sure to mention that is 15 fewer than the major league leader when you make your trade offer. I wouldn’t mention that he has never hit fewer than 32. I expect at least 30 this season.

2. Adam LaRoche, WAS

Typically a slow starter, LaRoche has started off the season on fire. So have the rest of the Nationals that can stay off the DL. The Nationals were expecting Michael Morse to be putting up the numbers that LaRoche has so far this season. I expect 30 home runs and  120 RBI. If everyone around him can get healthy, the RBI total total will climb.

3. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS

I don’t think Gonzalez or the Red Sox are as bad as they’re playing. He set career highs last year in runs and batting average. This year he has only hit 2 home runs and is batting .273. Gonzalez will finish with a batting average close to .300 and 25 home runs.

4. Robinson Cano, NYY

A .303 batting average and 22 runs are nice, but you don’t spend a first round pick on him. So far, this season, he only has 3 home runs and 15 RBI. Much like Gonzalez, I expect those numbers to go up as his team does better. He has hit at least 25 home runs the last three seasons and I expect him to make it four.

5. Hunter Pence, PHI

Pence has never finished a season with a batting average as low as it is now. The last two seasons his batting average has been over .300. I think he will finish just under that number, but with a career high in home runs. If Howard and Utley can return at full strength his run and RBI total will get a big boost, even though they are pretty good right now.

Go out and get these guys before their prices start to climb. Tomorrow I will give you 5 pitchers you need to trade while you can.

Atlanta Braves (24-15) @ Tampa Bay Rays (24-15) – The Braves have been dominant on the road (14-8) while the Rays have been exceptional at home (14-4). It will be intriguing to see what the Braves can do with another bat in the line-up. Hinske, Jones, and Diaz are all viable options at DH. The Rays were 12-6 in interleague play last year, winning 6 of 9 at home, while the Braves went 10-5 (4-2 on the road). The Rays have Shields, TBD, and Price on the mound while the Braves counter with Hanson, Delgado, and Hudson.

Prediction – Rays win 2/3

Baltimore Orioles (25-14) @ Washington Nationals (23-15) – If someone would have told you in Spring Training that the Nationals and Orioles will be two of the best teams in baseball, you would have let out a little giggle. But, tonight, two of the best teams in baseball will meet in Washington, D.C. Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, and Wei-Yin Chen will face Edwin Jackson, Ross Detwiler, and Stephen Strasburg this weekend, respectively. The Orioles won’t have to face Gio Gonzalez or Jordan Zimmerman. Strasburg will be coming off the worst start of his season on Sunday.

Prediction – Orioles win 2/3

Miami Marlins (20-18) @ Cleveland Indians (22-16) – The Indians have had the easiest schedule in baseball, so far, but have taken care of business on the road. This series will tell a lot about the Indians’ long-term viability as a playoff team. The Marlins have heated up after a slow start and need to go into Cleveland and get a few more games above .500, especially with the entire NL East maintaining winning records. Carlos Zambrano has been dominant and will be followed by consistent Anibal Sanchez and improving Josh Johnson. Cleveland will counter with Justin Masterson, Jeanmar Gomez, and Derek Lowe.

Prediction – Marlins win 2/3

Boston Red Sox (18-20) @ Philadelphia Phillies (20-19) – The Phillies have won 6 in a row and look to get out of  the NL East cellar this weekend. The Red Sox have turned around their abysmal start to win 6 of their last 10. The Phillies throw Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and Cliff Lee to the mound while the Red Sox counter with Daniel Bard, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. This match-up is worth watching because it contains two teams on the upswing at the bottom of tough divisions.

Prediction – Phillies Sweep

1. Josh Reddick, OAK

Reddick in his first year away from Boston is leading Oakland in all fantasy categories, except steals. You might not think that much because it’s the A’s. When compared to the rest of the MLB hitters his numbers are really good. He is 15th in runs and 11th in home runs. He is in the top 40 in rbi. You can’t blame him for not getting much help but you can trade him for it. He has already hit more home runs than he did last year in 100 fewer at bats. I look for his numbers to drop now that pitchers know about him. Trade him before you have to drop him.

2. Derek Jeter, NYY

The seventeen year veteran has just as many or more home runs as Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Robinson Cano. He also has the best batting average on the Yankees. So why would you trade him? Two reasons: The first reason is seventeen years is a long time to do anything. Especially playing professional sports. Jeter has played in every game except one this season and I believe the struggling Yankees will try to play him as much as possible. The second reason is balance. Jeter is off to a great start, as mentioned, but I doubt he can maintain this pace. The last two years his batting average dipped below .300 since 2004. Right now he is batting .366 and I expect him to finish a lot closer to .300.

3. Carlos Beltran, STL

Another veteran player who is off to a great start; Beltran is tied for second in home runs, fifth in rbi, and tied for 6th in runs. As usual, though, he is starting to wear down. Beltran is day to day right now and has not played a full year since 2008. He can fill up a stat sheet if he can stay healthy, but I doubt that will happen.

4. Melky Cabrera, SF

He had his best year as a pro last year and hasn’t slowed down. A career .278 hitter, Cabrera hit .305 last season and is currently hitting .331. He wont’ get a lot of help from the rest of the Giants or put up great power numbers, so trade him before his batting average starts to drop.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE

Another guy that had a great year last season and carried it over to 2012. He had a huge increase in home runs but also had an increase in strike outs and dip in batting average. He has cut back on the strike outs this season and his batting average is higher than ever. Now for the bad news. If you’re an Indians fan you have seen this hot start before and you know how quick they can cool off. Cabrera isn’t a .325 hitter (his current average) or a 25 home run guy. Trade him while people think he is.

I will have the 5 hitters you should trade for tomorrow. Then I will go on to the pitchers. Which list will your ace be on?

6. Kevin Gregg – $5 million – So, 5 million dollars doesn’t seem like a lot of money to be on this list, but relief pitchers don’t make that kind of money. Jose Valverde is making 9 million to close for the Tigers. Joe Nathan is making 7. But, typical closers are making between 2 and 5 million dollars to finish ballgames. Gregg is getting that money in middle relief for the Orioles because he couldn’t hold down the fort in the 9th.

5. Jason Bay – $18 million – Bay had 47 RBI in 2010 and 57 RBI in 2011. His average hovers around .245 and he can’t stay healthy for anything close to a full season.

4. Vernon Wells -$24 million – Wells hit .218 with 66 RBI in 2011 and is at .244 and on track for less RBI in 2012.

3. Barry Zito – $19 million – Zito has won 45 games in the last 5 seasons and lost 61. Roy Halladay gets 20 mill. Halladay has won 45 games in the last 3 seasons and lost 59 in the last 8 seasons. That is all. You get the point.

2. Albert Pujols – $25.4 million – Pujols is signed through 2022. Is anyone reading this sure that they will be alive in 2022? Even worse, is anyone sure Pujols won’t tear his ACL 7 times, break his wrist, or choose to retire within the next 10 years? Are we sure he’s REALLY 32? Albert is .213 on the year with 2 home runs and 17 RBI. He’s turning it around, but has already turned some stomachs in L.A. and has people wondering if this could end up being the worst contract in sports.

1. Alex Rodriguez – $30 million – A-Rod’s slugging percentage has declined steadily from .645 in 2007 to .461 in 2011. His slugging percentage is at .421 so far this season. The guy has 6 years remaining on this contract. Is 20 HR’s and 80 RBI really worth $27.5 million? No. Not now. And not in 2018.

My friend Joey: Hold on. I want to see Harper hit his first home run.

Four pitches later we got to witness Bryce Harper’s first home run. Thanks Joey. If you don’t know who Harper is you probably don’t like baseball or read this blog. Harper is the youngest player to hit a home run since 1998. He hit his second the following night. The 19 year old phenom also stole home in his 6th big league game.

While most kids were thinking about getting through high school, Harper was trying to figure out the fastest path to a major league roster. After his sophomore year of high school, he got his GED and enrolled at the College of Southern Nevada to get used to using a wooden bat. It didn’t take him long to get used to it. He beat the school’s home run record by 19 and was named SWAC player of the year. Can you imagine having major league teams and sports agents drooling over you before you’re old enough to vote? It would be really easy to let it all go to your head. Unless you’re Bryce Harper and just playing at the major league level isn’t enough.

You can tell it’s not enough by the way he plays the game, the way he runs the bases after a home run, or the way he stole home versus a six year ace Cole Hamels. The 19 year old isn’t playing baseball just for the fame and fortune. He is playing for Cooperstown. He is playing to smash records and win championships. People will talk about the pressure he plays under, but I’m guessing he expects more from himself than you or I even expect. We want him to be a young Ken Griffey Jr. or Barry Bonds, but he expects more. So don’t change the channel on Harper. You might miss a story to tell your children and grandchildren.

1) Texas Rangers (23-12) – The Rangers are the simplest pick for #1. They lead baseball in almost every statistical batting category. This team is scary. +80 run differential.

2) Baltimore Orioles (22-13) - The Orioles have the best bullpen in the major leagues and have hit the most home runs. Straight series against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Rangers only jumped their team ERA to 3.46. Only 2 teams in the top 10 of ERA are from the AL – Texas and Baltimore. And, if you’re going to allow less than 4 runs per game in the AL East, you’re going to be damn good.

3) Tampa Bay Rays (21-14) – Yes, the top three teams in baseball are from the AL. The Rays are #1 in the AL in ERA and 6th in runs scored. They’ve swept 3 series so far, including the Angels and Yankees, and sport a 13-3 home record.

4) Atlanta Braves (22-13) - We like the Braves more than the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Nationals because they’ve played 22 road games and just swept the Cardinals in St. Louis.

5) St. Louis Cardinals (20-14) -The Cards are hitting .283 as a team and have a 3.11 starter ERA. They can hit and pitch and their +65 run differential through 34 games is unbelievable.

6) Las Angeles Dodgers (23-11) - The Dodgers would be higher, but they’ve played 18 home games and have gone a measly 8-8 on the road. Also, they only have about 4 or 5 guys that can hit. Luckily, those 4 guys can REALLY hit.

7) Washington Nationals (21-13) – The injuries are piling up for the Nats and the bullpen can’t hold a lead. Still, they can pitch with the best of them for the first 7 innings and have a few guys that can rake.

8 – New York Yankees (19-15) – The Yankees have winning records against every division and have managed a 19-15 record despite slumping bats. The Yankees are about to make their ascent.

9) Pittsburgh Pirates (16-18) - The Pirates can truly pitch. If the bats start to come alive, this could be a surprise team.

10) Boston Red Sox (15-19) - A team with a losing record in the top 10? Yeah. The Sox have scored 189 runs. The pitching will come along.

11) New York Mets (19-15) – The Mets are 14-7 against the NL East.

12) Toronto Blue Jays (19-16) – Would be higher, but only 4-8 vs. AL East.

13) Detroit Tigers (17-17) – Their lineup is still their lineup. Soon, it’ll prove to be as advertised.

14) Oakland Athletics (18-17) – Their schedule hasn’t been EASY and they’ve won series against the Angels, Rays, and Red Sox.

15) Miami Marlins (18-16) – Won 8 of their last 10.

Honorable Mention – San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds

Full disclosure – I’m an Orioles fan. I’m not enraged by Evan Longoria’s twitter comment yesterday after his team dropped its second game in a row to the Orioles, “I love all these Os fans now diggin themselves too! Just don’t get too obnoxious, it can sometimes be a bit excessive.” What he said wasn’t offensive. But, for the most dynamic player on an opposing team, who has been riding the DL with a bad hammy, to sit back on his twitter account and take jabs at an opposing team’s fans….. He’s going to ruffle a couple feathers.

Baltimore fans have dealt with the agony of 12 straight losing seasons. The big bad Yankees and Red Sox have been dominating the AL East, only for the upstart Rays to stick their noses in every once in a while. The Rays were the underdog. Orioles and Jays fans have been pulling for the Rays, secondarily, for over a decade hoping for someone to unseat the Yankees and Sox. At the antithesis of this, the Orioles helped the Rays knock the Sox out of the playoffs on the last day of the season. Now, don’t take anything away from the Rays; they came back and beat the Yankees on Evan Longoria’s line-drive home run over the left field fence to solidify their playoff spot. But, Orioles and Rays fans were cheering for each other’s teams on that night with one rooting interest – to knock off the Sox and Longoria’s comments have ignored this mutual rooting interest and turned his back on his secondary fan club in the Black and Orange.

It’s all well and good.  I, as an Orioles fan, am not angry at Evan Longoria talking smack from his couch while his team is on the field losing to the perennial losers of the AL East. But, if you’re going to plant the seed of divide between the Orioles and Rays, don’t be surprised (Mr. Longoria) when Baltimore is rooting its heart out for a different team to miss the playoffs.

There was 2 rivalries in the East – Yankees vs. Boston and Yankees/Boston vs. The Rest. Someone turned the burner on “low” and there’s a new rivalry brewing in the AL East.

Danica Patrick is racing at Darlington. That is all I have to say about a driver who is only racing because she is marketable. As I look at the stats from the races at Darlington since it was repaved, I feel like something or someone is missing. That would be Jimmie Johnson. Only once since 2008 has he finished inside the top ten. Does that mean he won’t run well tonight? Not necessarily. His teammate Jeff Gordon has finished in the top 5 in three of the last four races there. The only time he didn’t was last years 12th place finish.

What I do see is a lot of drivers that usually don’t get a lot of attention. Last years race was won by Regan Smith. Jamie McMurray has an average finish of 11th over the last four races at Darlington, including a 2nd place finish in 2010. In his last 3 races at Darlington, Ryan Newman has finished 4th, 9th, and 5th. Brad Keselowski has also ran really well at this track over the last three years. His worst finish is 12th and he came in 3rd last year.

Of course some of the bigger names have ran well at the track too tough to tame. Tony Stewart who was more than a little upset about last weeks race has done well every other year at Darlington. Since 2008, he has finished 21st, 3rd, 23rd, 7th. So it might be another rough week for “smoke”, using that logic. Denny Hamlin is the safest pick. He has an average finish of 6th and a win in 2010.

The Roush Fords should run well, with Greg Biffle starting 1st. Carl Edwards unlucky streak will come to an end, with a top 10 finish. Their teammate Matt Kenseth had ran well until last years race at Darlington. I expect a top 15 finish for all three of the Roush drivers.

My pick to win may come as a surprise. Martin Truex Jr. has an average finish of 12th but has put together a strong season this year. I think he will get the win for Michael Waltrip Racing today.

Top 5

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Greg Biffle
4. Ryan Newman
5. Jimmie Johnson

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Back on February 14th I ranked my top 30 first basemen. Then I told you that Albert Pujols was going to struggle at his new home, but I didn’t think it would be this bad. I had him ranked 4th. As of right now, ESPN’s player rater has him at 50th out of all first base eligible players and the 3rd best on the Angels. My biggest miss was Edwin Encarnacion. I had him ranked 27th. Right now the only guys playing better have the last names Kemp and Hamilton.

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det

As expected Cabrera has filled the stat sheet, with the exception of steals. A batting average close to .300, 2nd in runs and rbi. Cabrera also has a low number of strike outs for a power hitter. Cabrera should continue to put up similar numbers the rest of the season.

2. Prince Fielder, Det

Prince hasn’t put up the power numbers I expected, but still has plenty of time. He has a solid batting average of .281 and should see a rise in his other stats as he gets comfortable in Detroit.

3. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor

The biggest surprise besides Pujols at first base this season. He has settled into his full time DH role in Toronto. He is at or close to the top in all statistics among first basemen. I don’t believe he can sustain his current rate of play but he should continue to exceed expectations.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Bos

While his current stats are not worthy of such a high ranking, I believe things will turn around for both Gonzalez and the Red Sox. Look for him to break out of his slump with multiple hits and home runs.

5. Joey Votto, Cin

Votto is another player who has had a dip in home runs. His batting average is also lower than usual. With Jay Bruce hitting well, Votto should see better pitches leading to more hits and home runs.

6. Paul Konerko, CWS

Ranked 7th in my initial rankings, Konerko could easily finish in the top 5. He has seen a boost in all his stats over the past two seasons and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. His .352 batting average is unsustainable but should stay above .300.

7. Albert Pujols, LAA

I knew Pujols would struggle but not to this extent. I’m guessing that both he and the Angels would like a do over. He will play better than he has, but probably not to the level we are used to seeing.

8. Freddie Freeman, ATL

I expected a better start from Freeman. I did not expect him to be leading all first basemen in runs and rbi. Add those to his solid power numbers and a .291 batting average and you get a player with top 5 potential at his position.

9. Mike Napoli, TEX

Napoli gets a huge boost in the rankings with his eligibility at catcher. His batting average is down, as expected. His runs, homeruns, and rbi are also right where I expected, among the top at his two positions.

10. Bryan LeHair, ChC

If you predicted that LeHair would be playing at his current level, you should be in Vegas. If he had more help from the Cubs, his runs and rbi would be much  higher. I don’t see him getting that help but he should continue to hit the ball well.

11. Adam Dunn, CWS

In February I said I hope he remembers how to hit home runs again. Guess who is tied for the lead among first basemen.

12. Michael Young, TEX

Young gets a huge boost thanks to his third base eligibility. Playing for the Rangers and hitting .308 doesn’t hurt either.

13. Michael Cuddyer, COL

I thought he would have more home runs by this point but his run and rbi totals are right on pace to reach my expected totals. His batting average is also higher than his career average of .272.

14. Carlos Santana, CLE

Wouldn’t be here if he didn’t have catcher eligibility. He is hitting the ball better than last year, which should lead to more rbi as the year continues.

15. Adam LaRoche, WAS

Typically a slow starter, LaRoche has got off to a great start just like the Nationals. If the rest of the Washington line up can get healthy he could easily be a top 10 first baseman by the end of the year.

16. Daniel Murphy, NYM

His eligibility at first, second, and third base to go along with a .312 average are the main reason he is ranked so high.

17. Carlos Pena, TB

Pena has to be happy to be back in Tampa. He will never hit above .250 again, but with 30 home runs, I can live with the batting average.

18. Eric Hosmer, KC

He has had a lot of trouble getting hits after batting .293 last season. However 1 out of every 4 hits this season has went over the fence. He will get it turned around and finish with a batting average around .270.

19. Chris Davis, BAL

He has been a surprise just like the rest of the Orioles. He has put up strong numbers across the board and will finish with better pitching stats than anyone else on this list.

20. Mark Teixeira, NYY

Teixeira has had trouble breathing this year and trouble batting. Once he gets healthy his batting average should improve but the Yankees as a whole are starting to look old.

21. Lance Berkman, STL

He should be off the DL soon and was batting .348 in 23 at bats to start the season. The Cardinals will take it slow with him, which will limit his numbers.

22. Todd Helton, COL

He doesn’t have a great batting average but will provide enough home runs and rbi to make up for it.

23. Mark Trumbo, LAA

He has more home runs than Pujols and Morales combined. He has more runs and rbi than they do as well. He is batting .293 to Pujols’ .198. He also has 51 fewer at bats than Pujols and 17 fewer than Morales. Someone should tell the Angels this.

24. Lucas Duda, NYM

Almost halfway to last years home run totals but has seen a dip in batting average. Those numbers will balance out.

25. Carlos Lee, HOU

Lee is playing as expected. A drop in all his numbers but still hitting .274.

26. Garret Jones, PIT

Jones isn’t getting many at bats and is on a bad team. He should see more playing time if he can continue to hit .279 with consistent power.

27. Justin Morneau, MIN

His 4 home runs were nice to see before he went on the DL.

28. Ty Wiggington, PHI

He has a .284 batting average and eligibility at multiple positions.

29. Michael Morse, WAS

Morse has missed more time than expected but should come back strong in June.

30. Ryan Howard, PHI

Another guy trying to get of the DL. Unfortunately, we don’t know how long that could take.

New guys on the list- Bryan LeHair(10), Adam LaRoche(15), Daniel Murphey(16), Chris Davis(19)

Todd Helton(22) Garret Jones(26), Ty Wiggington(28)

Off the list- Gaby Sanchez, Adam Lind, Ike Davis,Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Reynolds, Jesus Guezman, Justin Smoak