If you would have told me in September that either Eli Manning or Alex Smith would be playing in the Super Bowl, I would have thought you were crazy. If you would have told me that they would beat Rodgers and Brees to get there, I would have lost all respect for your sports knowledge. So now, when people tell me Eli is an elite quarterback, maybe I should listen. Or, maybe he will have to win two more playoff games.
ESPN has been gushing over Eli and his 4th quarter heroics. They have told us all week about his playoff greatness. Some writers have even gone as far to say he is better than Peyton. I’m not buying it.
If you have to win games in the 4th quarter you’re not winning them in the first three. In the first half of games this season, his numbers are not that great. Eli threw for 335 fewer yards with 13 more attempts but 21 less completions. His completion percentage is 56.1 and his quarterback rating is 83.2 in the first half of games. He also has a not-so-elite 11 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. If you want see what and elite quarterback looks like, check out how consistent Brady was this year http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2330/tom-brady.
Prisoners of the moment. That is the term that I feel best defines the Giants, especially their defense. A lot of people have become believers in their defensive line and how well they rush the passer. Once again, I’m not convinced. To be such at great pass rush they have only 6 sacks in 87 chances this post season. Only once have they been able to intercept a pass in those 87 opportunities. They did a good job of stopping Michael Turner in their first game, but allowed the 27th ranked rushing offense of the Packers to run for 6.4 yards per carry. Most of that was to Rodgers, but Smith averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in the first game with the Giants.
San Francisco averaged 6.5 yards per attempt last week against the 6th ranked rush defense. They have a great duo of backs in Gore and Hunter. Gore averaged 6.8 yards per carry last week. Hunter filled in for an injured Gore in the first game versus New York. He did pretty well, rushing for 6.7 yards per attempt and 1 touchdown.
Alex Smith passed the ball pretty well in the last meeting. He went 19 of 30 for 242 yards and a touchdown. He also had one interception. I don’t think he will have one in this game. All season he only had five and last week he didn’t throw any. He completed 24 of 42 passes, for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also ran for another. Not bad for a game manager.
San Francisco’s defense sets the tempo for most games. This one wont be any different. When you think about hard hitting defenses, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are the first teams that come to mind. That’s about to change. The 49ers might have the most physical defense in the NFL. Just ask anyone who caught a pass for the Saints last week. I have a feeling the Giants might have trouble holding onto the football.
The weather and both teams ability to run the ball will be the difference. Both teams will connect on some long touchdown passes, thanks to a wet field. The 49ers will beat up on the Giants backs and receivers, with or without the ball. The Giants wont be able to run the ball versus the best rush defense in the NFL. Turnovers and dropped passes will be too much for the Giants to overcome.
49ers 34 – Giants 20
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The Patriots will prove today that good offense trumps good defense. The Packers’ 3 fumbles and 8 dropped passes didn’t help prove that. Patriots shoot down the Ravens, 31 to 20.