The AFC and NFC Championship games are strikingly similar. Both feature elite quarterbacks versus quarterbacks trying to prove they belong. The elite quarterbacks will be playing against defenses that ranked third and fourth. The unproven quarterbacks are playing the 31st and 27th ranked defenses. We will soon get to find out if a great quarterback or great defense is more important. Or, maybe we will just find out which quarterbacks are elite and which ones are pretty good.
The AFC championship has some familiar faces from both teams. The Patriots get here for the first time since losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. This makes their 5th appearance since 2002. The Ravens lost the last time they made it this far, back in 2008. Before that, their last appearance was in 2000, in which they won the Super Bowl with one of the best defensive units to ever take the field and Trent Dilfer at quarterback.
Baltimore’s defense isn’t as good as the 2000 version, but the offense is much better. The Ravens defense is being questioned after giving up 100 yard days to Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. If you played fantasy football this year, you probably didn’t get either of those guys in the second round. The rest of the team totaled 50 yards on 1 run and 4 receptions. Foster was the only Texan to find the end zone. Rookie T.J. Yates and his 3 interceptions made the difference in that game.
There are even more questions on the other side of the ball; most of them about Joe Flacco. Last week he was sacked 5 times and failed to reach 200 yards passing. He did throw 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, but I think people are forgetting how good Houston’s defense was this year. The Texans were third in passing defense, fourth in rushing defense, and second in total yards allowed. The most troubling stat from the Texans/Ravens game was that Ray Rice only averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 21 attempts. He will have to do way better if he wants to beat New England.
The Patriots are way more diverse on offense but are nowhere close to the Ravens, defensively. New England has the best quarterback left in the playoffs. If he wins another Super Bowl, he could go down as the best to play the position. Tom Brady can turn receivers into stars. Just ask Randy Moss how much he misses being in Boston. The Patriots finished 20th in rushing yards per game, mainly because they were 2nd in passing yards per game with over 300 per game. The Patriots averaged a respectable 4 yards per carry.
New England isn’t very good on defense, statistically. They ranked 31st in passing yards allowed and 17th in rushing yards allowed. I blame this on Tom Brady. He usually has teams playing from behind. The Patriots (15th) were slightly better than average in points allowed. More importantly, they had the best turnover margin of all AFC teams. New England tied for 2nd in the NFL with 23 interceptions. No team in the AFC was even close. New England finished the season +17. The next closest AFC team was +7. All of this can be blamed on one guy…Tom Brady. He doesn’t turn the ball over
Brady is the only elite quarterback left in the playoffs. I apologize to all those who jumped on the Eli bandwagon. As long as Brady stays healthy, the Patriots will win. There will be plenty of yards and points in this game. The Ravens will need the opposite to happen to win. The Patriots will use all of their weapons early, resulting in a lead that they will not give up. Baltimore will abandon the run and Flacco will turn the ball over late.
Patriots – 31 Ravens – 20
Milky Mike’s Guest Prediction
Ravens win 30-27, thanks to 3 Tom Brady interceptions.
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