Offense wins games and defense wins championships. I believe that a defense that creates turnovers wins championships. Nine of the twelve teams to make the playoffs this season ranked in the top half of the league in total yards. Three of eight in the divisional round were ranked in the top half of the NFL in total yards allowed.  The 49ers(4th) won yesterday and either the Ravens(3rd) or Texans(2nd) will move on today. All of the teams that still have a chance to win the Super Bowl have a positive turnover margin.

Green Bay and New York are very similar in their offensive and defensive rankings. Both were in the top five in passing yards. New York finished last in rushing yards per game. Green Bay wasn’t much better at 27th.  The Packers allowed the most total yards this year. The Giants were 27th.

These are very similar teams except for one thing. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over. Rodgers threw an incredible 45 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. This would lead you to think he throws a lot of safe passes,  but no quarterback threw for more yards per attempt than Rodgers. On top of that, no quarterback that threw more than 20 touchdowns had single digit interceptions.

I think people are giving New York more credit than they should. They finished the season hot, but were 1-3 versus playoff teams. The Packers were 6-0 versus playoff teams. Interceptions by Eli Manning vs. touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers will be the difference.

Packers 41 – Giants 24

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We all love offense. The 49ers proved that defense matters a little bit, too. San Francisco’s defense got after Drew Brees play after play. They hit Drew Brees 11 times and racked up 3 sacks.

Tim Tebow was clearly outmatched last night against the Patriots. We can all lay Tebowmania to rest for a few months and focus on the 6 teams still playing.

The Baltimore Ravens are 7.5 point favorites today against the Texans. The Ravens will cover easily. My guess is 27-13.

Many fans and analysts are jumping on the Giants’ bandwagon. The Packers went into East Rutherford and put up 38 points in Week 13. This game is in Lambeau. The Packers last lost a home game on October 17th, 2010. It’s 2012, in case you didn’t know. And for the 32nd ranking in pass defense? Well, what do you think opposing teams do when the Packers are putting up 35+ points on them? They abandon the run and throw the ball. The Packers have the 14th ranked rush defense. You know why? Because teams can’t score 35 points running the ball.

Kobe Bryant scored 42 points last night. He also added 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and a block. This guy is 34 years old and has a bad wrist. Best of all time?

The Celtics are 4-7. Durant’s Thunder have won 6 straight. The Bulls, with the best record in the league, are allowing only 83 points per game (best in the league).

Does it seem like everyone is waiting for Prince Fielder’s price to come down? Usually, teams would be bidding him up.

The Washington Capitals host the Carolina Hurricanes this evening. Both teams are on 2 game winning streaks. The Capitals have one more home game on Tuesday before they hit the road.

Oregon QB Darren Thomas will leave school early to join the NFL draft. Why? Where’s he going to go; 7th round?

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The Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens have the most in common of any two teams in this weekend’s match-ups. Both teams have elite running backs and top ranked defenses. They remind me of what playoff teams used to rely on. Not many of the teams still playing can play defense like these two.

Both defenses finished in the top four in passing and rushing yards allowed per game. Houston was a little better at stopping the pass. Baltimore was better at stopping the run. The Texans had more interceptions. The Ravens had more fumble recoveries. Neither by a lot more than the other.

On the other side of the ball, both teams have top 5 running backs. Ray Rice rushed for 1,364 yards and caught 76 passes for another 704 yards. Arian Foster ran for 1,224 yards and caught 53 passes for 617 yards. The Ravens ranked 19th in passing yards per game. The Texans did a little better at 18th.

So what’s going to separate these teams? The Ravens won all of their home games this season. They won by an average of twelve points in those home games. They also posted an impressive six and zero record versus playoff teams. The experience of the Ravens will be just enough to get them past the Texans.

Ravens 24 – Texans 14

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