Archive for January 14th, 2012

At Number 7, the Jacksonville Jaguars…

January 14th, 2012

So, the Jags nabbed their head coach – former Atlanta Falcons Offensive Coordinator Mike Mularkey.  Mularkey has experience as a head guy. He led the Buffalo Bills to a 14 – 18 record in 2004 and 05.  He resigned after the 2005 season, citing a disagreement in the direction that then-new GM Marv Levy wanted to take the team.  Mularkey most likely saw the writing on the wall at the time and decided it would be better to resign than be fired.  Mularkey had potential, and still does, but at the time seemed over-matched.  He simply wasn’t ready to be a head coach.  There was obvious regression from the last half of 2004 to the 2005 season.  That was six years ago and it seems that new Jags owner Shahid Khan has faith that Mularkey has prepared himself for another chance at a head job.  Mularkey very smartly retained former Interim Head Coach, Mel Tucker, to be his Defensive Coordinator.  The players on the current Jags roster fought for Tucker. They competed,  and Tucker’s defense was far from the problem.  Tucker could end up being a very integral part of Mularkey’s success with this team.

The next big step for Mularkey is to bring in a coach who has had success working with and developing young Quarterbacks.  It seems that Blaine Gabbert is going to be the QB next year, even though this staff isn’t necessarily tied to him.   As you all know, I’m not the biggest fan of Gabbert.  I don’t feel he has the tools to be a franchise kind of guy, but maybe the right coaching could prove me wrong.  There is absolutely no doubt that, for Gabbert to succeed, the Jags must give him more weapons.  Maurice Jones-Drew became the fourth running back in history to lead the league in rushing while his team was last in passing.  It seems safe to say that the starting RB position is safe for a few years.  Picking up a running back to complement MJD later in the draft may be a good idea, but if Deji Karim can stay healthy, he can play second fiddle.

The Wide Receiver position for this organization is dismal.  Mike Thomas is a solid two or three, but to place number one status on the guy is simply not fair.  Thomas does not have the pure ability to be a true number one in the NFL.  Rookie Cecil Shorts had flashes of ability.  He could eventually be a productive member of the team, but he’ll never be a go-to guy.  The Jags attempted to bring back Mike Sims-Walker, but that was proven to be a mistake.  Sims-Walker is simply too inconsistent to be a go-to guy.  The Jags need a true number one.  Mularkey and his staff must be hoping that Justin Blackmon slides to them.  Blackmon is the one wide-out in this draft that is closest to a sure thing.  Size, hands, after-the-catch ability and above average speed make Blackmon a must-have for any team in need of receiver help.  Is he Calvin Johnson?  Maybe not; but, could you expect an Andre Johnson/Michael Irvin type player? I certainly think so.  The word on the street is that Blackmon is a much more complete player than former Ok. St. Cowboy Dez Bryant and, by all accounts, has absolutely none of the bonehead off-the-field issues that Bryant brings to the table.  Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina or Michael Floyd of Notre Dame should duke it out as the next receiver off the board.  In my opinion they would be reaches at this point in the process, but we all know that Jacksonville will reach for a player they love (Tyson Alualu, ahem…).

So, if it’s not a wide-out, who do the Jags take?  The defense could use some help.  Jacksonville seemingly went through a million cornerbacks throughout this season and stud Rashean Mathis will be 32 next season.  I could see Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama as a good fit in the Jags’ secondary.  He could step in opposite a healthy Mathis for a year or two and eventually take over for the vet once he moves on.  Kirkpatrick already seems to be getting a boost since declaring, so there is a possibility he is already off the board when the Jags pick.  Jeremy Mincey has been a pleasant surprise as a pass rusher for the Jags, but opposite him there was just no pass rush to speak of.   Quinton Coples of UNC would look pretty nice on the other side of the line.  He’s a prototypical 4/3 defensive end at 6′5″ and 280 lbs.  Coples has a great first step and has worked diligently to improve his pass rush moves.  The stats prove that he has put in the time to make himself a better player.  Coples recorded 5 sacks as a sophomore, 10 as a junior and 15.5 this last season.  He’s ready to step in a make a difference in the NFL and Jacksonville would be an excellent fit.

The Jags could also look at the interior of the defensive line for someone to pair with the aforementioned Alualu.  Devon Still of Penn State might be a reach at seven but, with good pre draft workouts, could move himself into the top ten.  He still seems to be the consensus top DT in this draft.  He is a mauler who has a tendancy to play in the opposing backfield – something the Jags could use a little help with.

Jags fans have a lot to look forward to.  New owner Shahid “the ‘Stache” Khan seems to want to keep the team in Jacksonville.  He’s brought in an offensive mind to help mold a young team.  He kept the status quo by bringing back Tucker.  Now, if they can get a valuable piece with the seventh pick, the Jags might be on their way out of the top ten.  In my opinion, they are praying that Blackmon falls to them. It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened.  Blackmon immediately makes Gabbert and the Jags offense much better.  If he’s not available, the pick has to be Coples.  Pair him with Mincey and the Jags will be spending a lot a time helping opposing quarterbacks off the ground.

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Broncos at Patriots Points and Prediction

January 14th, 2012

Last week’s Denver Broncos game makes picking against them very difficult.  Last week Tebow threw for 316 yards against the league’s number one passing defense.  The Patriot defense is not that good.

A lot of the stats I usually look at to predict these games point to the Broncos winning.  The Broncos have the number one rushing offense.  Denver rushed for 167 yards in the first quarter and 252 total last time they played.  It should be hard to beat a team that runs for 8.1 yards per carry, but three costly second quarter fumbles cost Denver the first game.

Before last week, the Broncos didn’t scare many teams with their passing attack.  The Steelers allowed Denver to do what they do best – throw it deep.  The Patriots defense is not very good at stopping the deep ball.  New England ranks 29th in yards per attempt against the pass. Tebow had an average of 8.8 yards per pass in the first game.

It’s not all bad for New England.  The few things they do well on defense happen to be areas in which Denver struggled.  The Patriots finished the season with a great turnover margin.  Twenty three interceptions and eleven fumble recoveries were the most takeaways of any AFC team.  Tebow doesn’t throw many to the other team, but the Broncos put the ball on the ground more than any team.

Many experts have been saying New England will leave their safeties back and force Tebow to throw short and intermediate passes.  That sounds like a really good idea in theory, but it puts a lot of pressure on the Patriots linebackers to stop the run – something they have struggled to do all year.

The Patriots will rely on Brady, one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL.  If he can get the Patriots an early lead, Denver may have to abandon the running game.  This is what happened in the first meeting.  Fumbles in the second quarter led to twenty points, including both a passing and rushing touchdown by Brady.

Injuries may play a big role in the outcome of this contest.  It is always hard to get a handle on the Patriots’ injury report.  This week they listed 13 players as questionable.  I expect most of them to play.  The injuries to the Broncos may be more costly.  Denver will be without receiver Eric Decker.  Safety Brian Dawkins may not play. And most importantly, right guard Chris Kuper could be out. The Broncos run the ball most effectively to the right side.  This could be what costs them the game this time around.

I think the magic was left at Mile High last weekend.  The Patriots will be motivated to win after 3 straight losses.  I think the Broncos will miss Kuper too much and because of it will struggle to run the ball.  Brady wins big, thanks to turnovers created by his defense.

Patriots 38 – Denver 10

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Random Saturday Morning Thoughts

January 14th, 2012

Kobe dropped another 42 last night, in case you were wondering if he’s past his prime.

The San Francisco 49ers are home underdogs today (+3.5). Go with the home dog. Always. Everyone looks at the Saints’ offense as the difference in the game. If the 49ers can disrupt their passing attack early, watch out.

The Denver Broncos are 13.5 point underdogs in Foxborough. Take the 13-and-a-half points. Every game in which the Patriots were big favorites this season, they gave up late points and didn’t cover. The Broncos are 6-2 against the spread on the road this season.

The Washington Capitals won last night behind Troy Brouwer’s hat trick. The Caps withstood withstood 2 third period goals to beat the Lightning for their 2nd straight victory and 6th straight home victory.

I’m calling an upset of North Carolina today. Florida State beats North Carolina this afternoon. You heard it here first. Florida State’s big men can keep up with North Carolina’s.

The Yankees took care of business yesterday, trading for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. Their rotation just became unbelievable.

Prince Fielder spent yesterday in Dallas, Texas, talking to the Rangers. Can their lineup get any better?

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