The first round of the playoffs provided plenty of excitement. Three of the four games were decided by at least three scores. The last took a very short overtime to decide the winner. I will get to “Tebow Time” later in the week. But, the one thing all four games had in common? The winning team didn’t score first. The three teams that won in regulation also had two common statistics – they were able to run the ball well and stop the run.
The first game of the divisional playoffs will match-up two teams that also do both of those things very well. The Saints finished the season ranked 6th in rushing yards per game and 12th in rushing yards allowed per game. They will be trying to hush the critics, who say they can’t win on the road. Drew Brees has played well both at home and away. With the exception of touchdowns and sacks, his numbers are nearly identical. However, the same can’t be said for his rushing attack. At home, New Orleans rushed for an impressive 5.8 yards per carry, 165 yards per game, and 11 touchdowns. Those numbers are down a little away from the SuperDome with about two yards per attempt, 65 yards per game, and half as many touchdowns. Did I mention that Brees isn’t throwing for more touchdowns and he got sacked twice as many times on the road?
Many experts and broadcasters have been quick to point out the improvement in the Saints’ pass protection. Their change in blocking has kept Brees off the ground and his passes away from defenders. While this may be true, you can’t deny the quality of pass defenses they have played in the second half of the season. In the first eight games, Brees was sacked 19 times and threw 10 interceptions. In the last eight games, he was sacked only 5 times and threw only 4 interceptions. In those last eight games, he didn’t face a passing defense better than 14th. Altogether, they had an average ranking of 22nd. The first half of the season had them playing an average passing defense of 17th. Not much better, but it did include three teams in the top ten of passing yards allowed per game.
The 49ers were an average team at stopping the pass this season. Actually, I should say they were average at giving up passing yards. San Francisco was much better at not giving up passing touchdowns (8th), sacking the quarterback (7th), and even better at interceptions (2nd). In fact, no team was better at turnover differential than the 49ers. Not too bad for an average pass defense.
The 49ers should have no trouble stopping the Saints’ trio of backs. They hold opposing teams to an average of 77 rushing yards per game. More impressively, they have only allowed 3 touchdowns on the ground all season. Two of those touchdowns were to rushers that ranked 1st and 3rd in rushing touchdowns this season.
Without a doubt, the star of the San Francisco offense is Frank Gore. He helped the team to 127 rushing yards per game; 8th best in the NFL. Gore finished his 7th NFL season ranked 6th in rushing yards. The back up, Kendall Hunter, proved in the last two games of the year that he was more than capable of running the ball. He averaged almost 5.5 yards per carry in those games and 4.2 yards on the year.
The 49ers MVP might not come from the running back position, though. No quarterback threw fewer interceptions than Alex Smith. In his best season as a pro, Smith passed for 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His efficiency made him a perfect fit for the 49ers and a tough match-up for the Saints.
The Saints defense has relied on pressuring the quarterback to create turnovers. This season, taking the ball away has been a big problem. Surprisingly, only one team had fewer takeaways this season. That team lost to Denver on Sunday. New Orleans finished the season minus three in turnover margin. That’s a far cry from San Francisco’s plus twenty-eight.
The Saints will abandon the run too early in this game and will try to rely on Brees alone. Even though the 49ers finished 29th in passing yards per game, they should keep a balanced attack versus the leagues 30th ranked pass defense. Two will be the magic number in this one. Two weeks to prepare for Brees, plus a two turnover margin for the 49ers, two touchdowns for Gore, two Akers field goals, and two tight end sets for the 49ers will be too much for the Saints to overcome.
49ers – 27 Saints – 21
Bonus: I had forgot how good Steve Young was until I saw this yesterday. Steve Young
*Feel free to comment. Due to excessive spammers, we have to approve commentors. But, after you have an approved comment, all of your comments will appear instantly. Sorry for the inconvenience*
*Follow us on Twitter @sportsaholicnet
Duke narrowly escaped #17 Virginia at home. I’ve contended for weeks that Duke is overrated. I still contend.