If you didn’t like the first game, you probably won’t like the second one. There’s two reasons, really. Not enough scoring is the first and the better team winning being the second. At first, I thought the rematch would have a completely different outcome. I would have told you the Tide would win, 24-17. Now, I think the winning team will be lucky to score 17 points. They wont be wearing Crimson, either.
These two teams just don’t give up points. Alabama led the nation in points against, giving up only 8.8 per game. LSU was close behind at 2nd. The Tiger’s defense gave up an average of 10.5 per game against some really good offenses. They held the 3rd ranked scoring offense of Oregon to a season low, 27 points. Seven of those came with 13 seconds left and no chance of winning. NFL bound, LaMichael James only managed 54 yards on 18 carries. West Virginia just scored 70 versus Clemson. LSU held them to a season low 21 points. Georgia, the SEC East Champs, was another team that had a season low in points versus LSU.
Alabama junior, Trent Richardson, averages 6.0 yards per carry and racked up 1,583 yards this season. It’s no secret that the Crimson Tide will feed him the ball, but LSU held him to 3.9 yards per carry for only 89 yards in their previous meeting. Richardson, however, was able to do it through the air, grabbing 5 balls and taking them for 80 yards. Richardson was the leading receiver and rusher in that meeting. Can he pass and kick field goals?
Speaking of field goals, Alabama uses a “long distance kicker” for, you guessed it, long field goals. Cade Foster attempted 4 field goals in the LSU game and missed 3. He’s 2 for 9 this season. The dynamic of being a guy that doesn’t get to kick short field goals, but only the difficult ones, kind of sucks. LSU kicker Drew Alleman has connected on 16 of 18 of his field goal attempts this season and is 3/4 on field goals over 40. Don’t you think, in a game like this, that field goal kicking is going to be a little important? No one scored a touchdown in their last meeting.
I don’t think the extra time to prepare is going to change these teams. Sure, they will do some things differently. Yes, there will be new formations and plays. Unfortunately for people who like points, they still have unreliable passing games, great running games, and even better defenses. I really think the extra time will cause the offenses to be slightly out of sync.
If you look at the last 5 BCS title games, you won’t find many points scored against SEC teams. The unstoppable offenses of Oregon(19), Texas(21), Oklahoma(14) and Ohio State(24, 14) were held to an average of 18.4 points. Most of those teams had better quarterbacks than the two playing this year.
The Tigers’ ability to run the option will be the difference. Jordan Jefferson ran for 43 yards on 11 carries in the first meeting. Running back Michael Ford averaged 6.5 yards per carry in the first game. Counting Jefferson, LSU has 5 backs this season that accumulated at least 50 carries and average 4 or more yards per carry. The four running backs also scored 30 touchdowns.
LSU also creates more turnovers than Alabama. LSU has gained 30 turnovers to 8 lost. Alabama has gained 18 to 12 lost. A crucial turnover could be the difference in this game.
LSU gets the nod. They contained Richardson before and will be able to do it again. And, in a game that could come down to a field goal, LSU has a more consistent kicker, so you have to give them the nod.
Prediction – LSU 17 – Alabama 13
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Remember, LSU beat Alabama IN Alabama. Makes one think that LSU could have an even better chance on a “neutral field.”