Everybody knows that Michigan is the Denard Robinson show. He has rushed for a 1,163 yards and 16 touchdowns and has passed for 18. While Robinson has a great arm, his accuracy is not there. In Michigan’s two losses, he completed an abysmal 26 out of 61 (42.6%) passes. Normally averaging 5.6 yards per carry, he was held to a combined 97 yards on 30 rushes (3.23 average) in those games.

Robinson has thrown 14 interceptions this season in 12 games. The Hokies are 39th in the nation in pass defense and have intercepted opposing quarterbacks 15 times. They have also held opposing quarterbacks to a 13th best 50% completion percentage, which doesn’t bode well for an already inaccurate Robinson. Look for Brady Hoke to limit Robinson’s pass attempts in hopes of limiting major mistakes.

If the Wolverines limit Robinson’s pass attempts, all contemporary logic leads us to believe that Michigan would run the ball quite a bit this evening against Virginia Tech’s 15th ranked rushing defense. With Robinson and Sophomore speedster Fitzgerald Toussaint both accumulating 1000+ rushing seasons, the Hokies have to focus on 2 different rushers every play. The Wolverines run the kind of offense that, if it gets going, can put it into 5th gear and cruise. If Robinson breaks open a few big runs, the Wolverines’ can open up the offensive playbook. If the offense sputters and is forced to pass on third down, they’ll be punting a lot. For Michigan to be successful, they need to keep the defense wondering where the ball is and get the ball to its play-makers other ways than through the air. Bud Foster’s defense is full of good tacklers and an athletic secondary.

If it seems to you that Virginia Tech’s defensive strengths match up very well against Michigan’s offense, easier said than done. But, if the Hokies can contain Robinson and Toussaint and force Robinson to put the ball in the air, the Hokies should be successful.

Stop the run. Make Robinson throw. Game over.

Virginia Tech goes into the SuperDome tonight off its second embarrassing loss to Clemson of the season. The Clemson games are good examples of what the Hokies need to improve on to win tonight in New Orleans. In both Clemson games, combined:

• Virginia Tech’s offense went 11 for 32 on 3rd down.
• Logan Thomas rushed 24 times for 10 yards.
• David Wilson had 9  and 5 carries, respectively, in the second halves.
• Logan Thomas was 37/71 (52%) passing, with 1 TD and 3 Interceptions
• Virginia Tech was penalized 15 times for 151 yards.
• Virginia Tech turned the ball over 5 times. Clemson – 1.

The key for the Hokies, offensively, to winning the Sugar Bowl is having short 3rd downs. They can accomplish this by playing a clean game and cutting down on the penalties, running the ball with BOTH Wilson AND Thomas, and completing a higher percentage of passes.

The best example of this game plan was the North Carolina game, where they threw bubble screen after bubble screen in the first half for positive yardage each time. The screen game caused North Carolina to stay on their heels instead of playing downhill more to stop the run. This spread out the Tar Heels’ defense enough to give Thomas and Wilson running lanes. Thomas had multiple 3rd downs where he just quarterback-sneaked it for the first down. Am I saying the Hokies should run 1000 bubble screens? Well, yes. Then, you can pump-fake the bubble screen and throw it deep.

The Hokies need to get the ball to Wilson tonight, but not necessarily on vanilla “power left” dive plays. Get the Wolverines on their heels first. Don’t come out on the first drive and run left, run right, and a 5 yard out pattern on 3rd and long. The Hokies, basically, need to bomb the hell out the Michigan defense (short to intermediate passing game) before they bring in the infantry (David Wilson and Logan Thomas read-option).

Mainly because of Denard Robinson’s play-making ability and Rich Rodriguez’s defense’s inability to stop anybody, people see Michigan as a scoring-heavy team with little defense. But, Michigan has allowed a nationally ranked 6th fewest points per game. Their rushing defense ranks 35th and their passing defense ranks 17th. It will be a huge task for the Hokies to move the football against a very fast Wolverines defense.

The Hokies have David Wilson. Well, Big 10 offenses have running backs. The Hokies have Jarrett Boykin. The Big 10 has big receivers. The one thing that the Big 10 doesn’t have (besides 10 teams), is Logan Thomas. The Big 10 doesn’t have 6-6, 254 pound freight trains at quarterback. Thomas’ ability to complete the high-percentage throws and run the football will make a huge difference in the Hokies’ chances. The quarterback-sneak is a guaranteed 1 to 32 yards for Thomas, but he’ll need short 3rd downs to set up the Hokies’ secret weapon. If the Hokies’ offense is to be effective:

• No penalties
• No turnovers
• Complete high percentage passes
• Open up the defense through the passing game FIRST to create running lanes for David Wilson and Logan Thomas

3rd and short = effective Hokies offense

It’s Chicago Maroon and Burnt Orange vs. the Maize and Blue for the first time in the history of the two nationally respected programs.  Denard Robinson vs. Logan Thomas.  The back on the scene Big Ten powerhouse Wolverines vs. the Hokies, a program in dire need of a marquee victory for the school as well as the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Tonight on ESPN, the Michigan Wolverines will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies in the 2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl.  It’s a contest that has huge national implications for both programs.  If Michigan can pull off a victory, they are letting the country know that this Brady Hoke led program is back and a player on the national scene after a few miserable seasons under Rich Rodriguez.  The Hokies need a big victory over a major non-conference foe.  This match-up has the makings of something saucy!

Michigan enters the game with a 10-2 record on the season.  First year coach Brady Hoke leads the Wolverines to their first BCS bowl since 2006.  The Wolverines are led by junior quarterback Denard Robinson.  Robinson threw for 2,056 yards with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, but does most of his damage on the ground, where he led the team with 1163 yards and 16 touchdowns.  The game-changer has incredible speed, which makes every broken play terrifying for opposing teams.

Unfortunately for the Hokies, Robinson is not the only weapon the Wolverines have in the backfield.  Sophomore running back Fitzgerald Touissant joined his QB in the 1,000 yard club this season with 1,011 yards and 9 touchdowns.  The shifty tailback came on strong to end the season, rushing for at least 120 yards in 4 of Michigan’s final 5 contests.  The Wolverine rushing attack is bolstered by a strong and steady offensive line, led by All-American senior Center David Molk.

While Michigan’s passing game should not be ignored, (Robinson will make plays with his arm), it’s the running game that will be the focus of the Hokie defense.  In their 10 wins, the Wolverines have averaged almost 261 yards on the ground.  In their two losses, the numbers are drastically different as Michigan racked up only 104.5 per game – quite a difference.  The key for Michigan is to get up early and maintain the run game.  If they can do that, things may not look too positive for Virginia Tech.  If the Wolverines fall behind early and need to abandon the run and rely on Robinson’s arm more than his feet, I feel the Hokies will be in a much better position.

As big a victory this match up would be for Michigan, a win for Virginia Tech would be huge.  The Hokies enter this game with a 1-4 record in BCS contests.  Virginia Tech desperately needs to wash the remnants of last year’s abysmal performance off.  The Hokies held tight with Stanford for the first half of last year’s Orange Bowl before the Andrew Luck led Cardinal turned it on and dismantled the Gobblers in the second half.  Virginia Tech has been lacking a quality victory over a ranked non-conference opponent.  With losses to Stanford, Boise State, Alabama, USC, LSU and Auburn in the last few years, the Hokie faithful are anxious to move the program to the next level.  A win against a program like Michigan would most definitely be a step in the right direction.  Seems like a lot to put on the shoulders of first year starting quarterback, Logan Thomas.

Thomas has been a very pleasant surprise for the Hokies this season.  Don’t get me wrong – Thomas has struggled at points this year and that could be expected, but the young QB has also shined.  Thomas has thrown for almost 2,800 yards and picked up 19 touchdowns through the air with only 9 picks.  He also picked up over 400 yards on the ground and scored 10 touchdowns as the Hokies goal-line/short yardage back.  For the Hokies to come away with a victory, Thomas needs to be on his game.  He needs to play a confident game.

The Hokies can’t afford a shaky start like the one they experienced in the ACC championship game against the Clemson Tigers.  An early fumble seemed to rattle Thomas and he never seemed to be the same during that contest.  The Hokies must establish the run game early with super-back David Wilson.  The freakish athlete with a ballerina’s balance will most likely set the Virginia Tech single season rushing record tonight.  He enters the contest with 1,627 yards while adding 9 touchdowns on the ground.  Wilson added 21 catches and a touchdown through the air.  With this most likely being the Junior’s last college contest, I expect big things as Wilson has a chance to break the single season rushing record for the ACC as well.

As with Michigan, it is important for the Hokies to run the ball with authority.  In their 11 victories, the Hokies average over 200 yards a contest, but in their two losses that number drops to 95 per.  The run game is essential to the Hokies’ success.  With an experienced offensive line and a veteran group of wideouts led by two of the greatest receivers (Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale) in school history, the Tech offense should have the firepower to stand up to the Wolverines.

While this Hokie defense is not quite on par with some stalwart groups of the past, the group in deep and solid.  The Hokies are ranked right behind their opponent in points allowed this season at seventh in the nation.  This group is young all over, but gained a ton of experience this season.  The key to tonight’s match-up is to not over pursue, or Robinson and, to a lesser extent, Touissaint, will make you pay.  It is also paramount for the Hokies to tackle well. There is no need to give Robinson extra chances in the open field.  Luckily, the Hokies have Kyle Fuller in the secondary, as he may be the best open field tackler I have had the pleasure of seeing in person.  I guarantee you the Hokies are hoping he won’t have to make too many of those types of plays, though.

I personally hope that this match-up is as fun as I think it will be.  It would be nice to shut the masses up who don’t believe that either team deserves to be there.  This game will be decided early.  Whoever establishes their running game first should come out victorious.  Michigan needs to hope they come out and play like they did in their last two contests against Nebraska and Ohio State.  Virginia Tech must come out with authority.  They need to bully the Wolverines on both sides of the ball.  If they come out soft, like both Clemson games, Michigan and Robinson will make quick and easy work of them.

I may be biased and I can hear the “homer” calls already, but I feel this game is the Hokies’ to lose.  David Wilson and Logan Thomas will lead the offense and Kyle Fuller, Jayron Hosley, James Gayle and Derrick Hopkins will contain the passing game of Michigan.  The Hokies get up early and hang on in a 34-21 victory.