Archive for January 2nd, 2012

With the 3rd pick, the Minnesota Vikings…

January 2nd, 2012

‘Tis the season for Head Coaches on terrible teams to start to worry about their job security.  Leslie Frazier is one of the lucky few.  Sure, the Vikings were absolutely abysmal this season, but honestly, we all kind of anticipated that.  The majority of us knew that Donovan McNabb was done.  The offensive line was starting to get old and out of shape (of course Bryant McKinnie looked quite a bit better in Baltimore than Charlie Johnson did in Minnesota).  The secondary isn’t anything to get excited about and with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Jay Cutler in the division, that’s not an option.  These reasons are why Frazier will get a chance to coach this team again in 2012. The Vikings expected to go through some growing pains. And they have.

The Vikings have some quality pieces. So, turning this thing around might not be as bad as some might think.  Adrian Peterson is one of the best in the game when healthy. Hopefully, the torn ACL doesn’t rob him of his skill.  Jared Allen just missed the all-time single season sack record with Brian Robison on the other side of the line.  Granted, Robison had 8.0 sacks, but how many of those were because of Allen?  I’d say most of them.  Percy Harvin is electric with the ball in his hands, but he needs help, too.  There is no longer a player the caliber of Sidney Rice lining up on the opposite side of the field.  Kevin Williams is still an anchor on the defensive line, but didn’t look the same this year without his retired partner in crime, Pat Williams.

So what direction does Minnesota go this off-season?  Step one is to figure out if Christian Ponder is the answer.  I know, Minnesota spent their first rounder on the Florida State product just last year.  Ponder was a reach. We all knew it then and we still know it now.  Ponder had himself a respectable rookie season.  He had his moments where it looked like maybe it wasn’t such a reach.  There were also moments where Joe Webb looked like a better option.  Under the new collective bargaining agreement, first round rookie salaries no longer cripple an organization with millions and millions of guaranteed dollars going to players who have yet to prove a thing at the professional level.  It is much easier for a franchise to move on quickly if it so desires.

With a player the caliber of Robert Griffin III sitting on the board at number three, the Vikings at least need to do their due diligence.  Does that mean that they give up on Ponder already and take a QB in round one for the second year in a row?  Not necessarily, but they should at least look into it.  Who else would the Vikings consider?  Obviously if Matt Kalil falls to them, the Vikings will snatch him up.  As the draft moves closer, the Rams may be taking bids for teams to move up and select the Heisman trophy winner out of Baylor (Griffin III), which would allow the Vikings to select the Left Tackle of the future.  If Kalil is not there the next viable option is Morris Claiborne, CB/LSU.  Claiborne is the type of player that could walk into training camp next summer and walk out with a starting postion.  He has the size, footwork, play making ability and football IQ to make an immediate impact in Minnesota’s secondary.  Claiborne is the type of player you expect to cover the Calvin Johnson’s and Greg Jennings.

If cornerback is not the way Minnesota goes, then perhaps the defensive end out of UNC, Quinton Coples, would be the guy.  He’s a physical freak and a plus pass rusher.  Jared Allen would appreciate not seeing as many double teams.  The only other player I could see Minnesota reaching for at number three is Justin Blackmon, WR/Oklahoma State.  Blackmon would probably be considered a reach if the Vikings took him, but the talent and potential is undeniable.  He is the big playmaking receiver that would take a lot of pressure off the entire offense.

As I said earlier, Minnesota has the pieces to turn around this franchise quicker than many might expect.  One big key is the health of Adrian Peterson.  While its been said that the Vikings expect him back and at full strength by opening day 2012, those of us who watch the game know that it is very unlikely that he will be 100 percent by then.  Will he be serviceable?  Of course he will. And, if he’s not, Toby Gerhart has proven that he can shoulder the load for a bit.  That said, the Vikings need a healthy Peterson to make some noise.  He is the heart and soul of this offense. When he goes, they go.  Leslie Frazier is hoping Peterson is ready to go on opening day. That way, he doesn’t have to worry about Black Monday next year.

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Black Monday and the Top 10 is Set…

January 2nd, 2012

First of all, I must admit for the first time on this site that I was wrong.  Unfortunately for all of us this is most likely the first of many.  So, the Jags didn’t lay down to the Colts yesterday.  Silly Maurice Jones-Drew and his quest to crush the competition for AFC rushing supremacy.  Jones-Drew out-rushed the nearest competitor, Ray Rice of Baltimore, by 240 yards.  He had almost 2000 yards from scrimmage this year.  Could you imagine if he had been supported by any sort of a passing attack?  Wow, just wow.  With 25 carries for 169 yards, the Jags didn’t need anything from Blaine Gabbert (which is good, because the vaunted Jacksonville passing attack gained a whopping 71 total yards for the game).  Did I mention it was the Colts too?  That team is bad and they showed it again yesterday.

So, now that the Colts have secured the #1 overall pick in April’s draft, the consensus says that Andrew Luck is the guy.  Right?  Not so fast.  Today, the Irsay family said goodbye to Bill Polian and his sons.  You know, the guy who came to this Colts franchise a few years ago and made a statement in his first draft with the team.  That statement was named “Peyton Manning.”  The Colts won 10 games per season in 9 of the 14 seasons Polian was in charge.  There are rumors floating around that Polian was willing to cut ties with Peyton and move forward with a QB named “Luck.”  Apparently that option did not sit well with the Irsay’s.

So, does Indy auction the number one to the highest bidder and gear up for another Super Bowl run before Peyton finally breaks down?  Does this franchise pass on a near “can’t miss” guy at QB and take a tackle like Ryan Kalil?  Does Jim Irsay simply want to make sure Manning is with this team the next few years to help bring along the ”next guy”?  I’m not sure. And I doubt that anyone outside of the Irsays can answer that for sure… and there is a good chance that they have no idea what they plan to do just yet either.

The smart money is on the Colts taking Luck and letting him learn the ropes behind, possibly, the greatest signal caller of this generation. But, in the NFL, the smart money doesn’t necessarily do the talking.  Step one for the man or men who replace the Polians: Decide what to do with head coach Jim Caldwell.  My guess is that there will be a new head guy patrolling the sidelines in Indy next season, but we shall see.

While Polian was perhaps the most shocking casualty of the day, he was far from the only one.  Raheem Morris could not survive the 10 game losing streak his Buccaneers ended the year on.  Morris seemed to simply lose his team.  Tampa Bay was simply bad this year.  The effort wasn’t there. And as a result, the Glazer family had a pretty easy decision to make.  This franchise is very young and has some important pieces in place.  Tampa isn’t the only place looking for a new coach, though.  The St. Louis Rams parted ways with General Manager Billy Devaney and Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo.  This group looked like they had turned the corner last year and the Rams were a sexy pick to make the playoffs this year.  Well, injuries and regression nipped that in the bud.  The Rams suffered through a 14 loss season and that wrote the final notes on Spagnuolo’s tenure.  SI’s Peter King dropped this nugget about the Rams under Spagnuolo: the Pats have lost less games in a decade under Bill Belichick than the Rams did in three seasons under Spagnuolo.  Ugh.

The Jags, Dolphins, and Chiefs all can now start looking to replace the interim coaches with full-time guys.  Romeo Crennel may have a chance to keep his spot in K.C.; but in Jacksonville and Miami, there will be new coaches.  Keep your ears open because Black Monday is just the beginning.  AJ Smith and Norv Turner are probably gone in San Diego.  I’m not convinced that Jason Garrett is coming back to Dallas, despite every word of support from Jerry Jones.  Garrett simply seems over-matched out there.  We all know Jones needs a puppet for a head coach, but I’m not sure Garrett is up to the task.

Stay tuned for more off-season previews!  The fun has just begun!

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Roses Really Smell Like

January 2nd, 2012

Rose Bowl Game

Oregon (-4) vs. Wisconsin – O/U (72.5)

Andre 3k should have said the “Rose Bowl really smells like poo-oo-ooo.” Don’t blame Oregon though. It won’t be their fault this game stinks. They have the flashy uniforms to go with the flashy offense. Football fans want points. Ask the NFL, Oklahoma State fans, or anyone who watched the Alamo Bowl. Wisconsin is going to be playing Caroline in this one. Mighty fine, but coming up short.

On paper, these teams look pretty even. Both have good quarterbacks. Both have next level running backs. On paper, I would give the game to Wisconsin. The Badgers have a big advantage in points against. The Ducks are ranked 45th, giving up 23.6 points per game; while Bucky and Co. are ranked 6th and only allow 17 points per game. This is where we need the golden calculator.

When I look at the teams and their schedules a little closer, I give the edge to Oregon. In fact, I don’t think it will be close. Both teams only lost 2 games, but neither conference was all that great. It’s the 2 teams they lost to and the teams they beat that make me favor Oregon. Wisconsin lost to a bad Ohio State team and an up and down Michigan State team. They also didn’t play any ranked teams outside of the Big 10. The Ducks two losses were to LSU, who had a pretty good season and USC, the best team in the PAC 12.  Oregon managed 27 points against an LSU defense that only allowed 10.5 points per game (Good enough for 2nd in the nation). Oregon also beat a good Stanford team 53-30.

I look for Oregon to get out to an early lead and Wisconsin’s passing game not being good enough to keep up. The final score will also be closer than the game really is. Wisconsin will get a few scores due to Oregon playing loose at the end.

Prediction – Oregon 48- Wisconsin 31

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Heagon’s College Bowl Picks

January 2nd, 2012

Going to give you my picks, a 1-35 confidence rating, and my girl’s random picks for today’s games.

Current Record: 18-5 with 378 points

Houston(21) over Penn. St.

Girl’s pick – Houston

UGA(22) over Mich. St.

Girl’s pick – UGA

S. Carolina(11) over Nebraska

Girl’s pick – Nebraska

Florida(10) over Ohio St. Warning – Homer pick

Girl’s pick – Florida

Oregon(30) over Wisconsin

Girl’s pick – Oregon

Stanford(23) over Oklahoma St.

Girl’s pick – Oklahoma St.

As a bonus she believes Oklahoma St. will lose by 3 because Luck will choke and throw his second interception, at the end.

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Monday Quick Hitting Bowl Predictions

January 2nd, 2012

So, we’re 14-10-1 on our bowl picks after Saturday. We’re going to quick hit you with them again today, because there’s way too many games to give you a preview of each one.

Houston (-7.5) vs. Penn State – O/U (56)

Pick – Over (56)

Georgia (-3) vs. Michigan State – O/U (49.5)

Pick – Georgia (-3)

South Carolina (-3) vs. Nebraska – O/U (45.5)

Pick – South Carolina (-3)

Florida (-2) vs. Ohio State – O/U (44)

Pick – Ohio State (+2) and Under (44)

Oregon (-5) vs. Wisconsin – O/U (71.5)

Pick – Wisconsin (+5)

Oklahoma State (-4) vs. Stanford – O/U (74)

Pick – Over (74)


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