Military Bowl – 4:30 – ESPN

Toledo (-4) vs. Air Force – O/U (70)

Toledo has one of the most prolific offenses of the defensively challenged Mid-American Conference. Congratulations, you put up 45 points each on 5 of the bottom 30 defenses in college football. The Rockets BARELY sneaked out of the bottom 30 defenses in football, themselves, coming in at 31st.

Toledo is 29th in the nation in passing, 14th in rushing, and 8th in points scored. Sophomore Terrance Owens will most likely start at quarterback, as Junior Austin Dantin is coming off a concussion. Both passers have excelled in the Rocket offense.

Air Force finished 6th in the nation in passing yards allowed, but they faced THREE teams in the top HALF of the nation in passing yards. In fact, they played Army and Navy, who are LAST and 2nd-to-last, respectively, in passing yards. All three times Air Force faced decent passing offenses, they lost by double digits. That being said, Army and Navy have 2 of the most prolific rushing offenses, so Air Force’s 113th place finish in rushing defense is a little inflated.

Air Force can move the ball well on the ground, but not through the air. Such an ironic name, “Air Force,” for a team in the bottom 10 teams in passing. 2nd in the nation in rushing against a MAC defense, Air Force will be able to pound the rock.

Toledo has won 7 of their last 8, with their only loss coming to Northern Illinois in a 63-66 thriller.

Air Force has won 4 of their last 5 after three straight losses to Notre Dame, San Diego State, and Boise State.

Toledo got a good match-up in the Military Bowl against a team that hasn’t seen the ball in the air very much.

Toledo’s passing attack will prove to be too much for Air Force, who hasn’t seen many pass-oriented offenses this year. Though Air Force will be able to chew clock and wear out Toledo’s defense, they won’t be able to stop Toledo without turnovers. Air Force doesn’t have the offense to play from behind. You can’t score 14 points in 3 minutes running the triple-option. Air Force will hang in there and score some points against a bad Toledo defense, but Toledo’s offense will put up points fast and often, get out to a lead, and Air Force won’t have the ability through the air to catch up.

Prediction – Toledo 52 – Air Force 35

Pick – Toledo (-4) and the Over (70)

For the next week or so I’d like to start breaking down each team who failed to make the playoffs this year, giving my opinion as to the direction each franchise should take in the next off-season.  The goal is to break it down in the potential order of next April’s draft.  So without further ado, the St. Louis Rams.

The head coaching gig for the St. Louis Rams may just end up being the hot job this off season with names like Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher already being tossed around to replace the, yet to be fired but, good as gone Steve Spagnuolo.  Seems silly for a 2-13 team, right?  Not when you look at the positives for this club;  the number one pick in the upcoming draft.  This pick will be Andrew Luck, which team he signs his first contract with is still up for grabs.  The Rams already have a good young quarterback, but Luck could be one of those “once in a decade” kind of guys.  Sam Bradford has shown he could be a solid pro quarterback with the potential to be a star.  With better protection and a better scheme, Bradford could easily regain the form he showed us in 2010.  Remember that Bradford was without the services of his favorite and most reliable target from 2010, Danny Amendola, for the majority of this past season.  The loss of Amendola, plus the shaky offensive line, have really stunted Bradford’s growth.  Bradford is only in his second season after being taken number one overall out of the University of Oklahoma.

There is plenty of time to “right the ship.”  That would give this team two very interesting options with the number one pick;  keep it and trade Bradford or trade it and move forward with Bradford.  I’m sure a team like Washington would be all over Bradford if he were available.  Mike Shanahan was drooling over the potential of selecting Bradford two years ago.  But what is his value?  One would think at least a first rounder maybe a third as well.  But the number one pick this year could command an absolute bounty; at least two first rounders, a second and a third. Who knows how much some QB needy team will give to move up and add Luck?  That is hard to turn down, especially when there is a potential franchise quarterback already on the payroll.  One would assume that with teams like Washington, Miami and Seattle most likely to be willing to move up to grab Luck, St. Louis will probably still be drafting in the early part of the upcoming draft leaving them in great position to select a cornerstone left tackle.

Matt Kalil of USC, Jonathan Martin of Stanford, and Riley Reiff of Iowa are all guys that could walk in and start at left tackle for the Rams.  This would solve a multitude of issues for St. Louis.  Roger Saffold could slide to the right side, which would be a much better fit for his skill set.  Jason Smith could slide inside and attempt to shed the “bust” label that has been bestowed on the former number two overall pick.  With a stronger offensive line, a healthy Bradford, Steven Jackson, Brandon Llyod and a returning Amendola, the Rams offensive could begin to look a lot more like the 2010 version than the ghastly, Josh McDaniels led, 2011 unit.  If I were running things in St. Louis, this is the direction I would go if the number one pick landed in my lap.  Get all of the picks you absolutely can out of whomever wants to move up the most.  Remember when Dallas traded Herschel Walker to Minnesota for everything but the kitchen sink or when Mike Ditka traded his whole draft to move up and take Ricky William? These are the types of packages I assume the owner of this pick will get.  That has got to make St. Louis grin from ear to ear.

There are also a few pieces on the defensive side of the ball as well.  Heading into this weekend’s showdown with the 49ers, linebacker James Laurinaitis has 133 tackles, 3 sacks and 2 interceptions.  The former Ohio State standout is the heart of the defense and should continue to be for the next few years.  Chris Long is a dominant defensive end, recording 13 sacks so far this season without much help from other pass rushers.  The rebuilding on defensive would definitely be helped along by stock piling picks.  You would have to think that the Rams would consider looking at a guy like Quinton Coples, out of UNC, to pair with Long at defensive end or perhaps a corner like Morris Claiborne of LSU, though I personally believe drafting o-line first would make more sense.

On top of all the returning talents and stock pile of draft picks a trade of the number one would bring, the Rams will also enter the new league year with the most salary cap space available.  If owner Stan Kroenke feels like opening up the check book, I do believe the Rams could land them a top tier coach.  Once that move happens, look for a couple of quality veterans to sign on as free agents.  Bradford could flourish with a coach like Jon Gruden.  Even the rock steady Jeff Fisher would be sure to surround himself with a good offensive mind who could help get Bradford back to the 2010 version.  Think about how devastating Steve McNair used to be on those Fisher led Tennesee teams.  It’s easy to see how this Rams team could be a quick fix in the right situation.   2012 should be much more nice to the St. Louis Rams than the 2011 season was.

Belk Bowl – 8:00 EST – ESPN

N.C. State (-1.5) vs Louisville – O/U (44)

Louisville started the season off poorly offensively with Will Stein at the helm. Freshman Teddy Bridgewater took over the reins and had to go through the typical growing pains, but Louisville’s offense came on strong at the back end of the season, averaging 25 points per game over their last 6.

Louisville boasts a top 20 defense, trying to wear opponents out with the running game and playing the field position game. Though this plan was unsuccessful in the beginning of the season, they’ve come on strong with Bridgewater’s ability to move the chains with his legs.

North Carolina State is an anomaly. They will lose to Wake Forest and Boston College, then beat Clemson. The Wolfpack are more effective when Senior Mike Glennon is given the chance to throw the ball around.

N.C. State sucks at running the ball, finishing the regular season 107th out of 120 teams in running. This game is going to come down to the accuracy of Mike Glennon.

Louisville has won 5 out of its last 6 games.

N.C. St. has won 5 out of its last 7.

N.C. State has started firing on all cylinders recently. While Louisville has also played well as of late, I have to go with the Wolfpack. They can put up a lot of points once they get going, and I don’t see Bridgewater leading the Cardinals down the field consistently enough to put up the 30+ points needed to win this. Go with the Senior quarterback in Glennon over the Freshman, Bridgewater.

Prediction – N.C. State 31 – Louisville 20

Pick – N.C. State (-1.5) and Over (44)

With this season coming to an end, many fans are looking towards the playoffs.  Many are not.  Some of us poor saps are already looking towards next April and the NFL draft.  This weekend, the top prize in the 2012 draft will be decided and the next big thing (Andrew Luck) will have a new place to call home.  Will it be Indy?  Definitely seemed that way up until the last couple weeks.  Could it be St. Louis?  Sure could.

What decides who ends up with number one?  Pretty simple actually; Indy loses and the pick is theirs.  St. Louis needs an Indy win and a loss to San Francisco to secure the pick.  Mind you, San Fran needs a victory to lock up the second seed in the NFC and New Orleans could end up in that spot with a win and a Niners’ loss.  Indy plays Jacksonville so, one might think that this matchup could easily go either way, right? Not necessarily

If you are part of the Jacksonville Jaguars organization, do you really want the Colts to have stability at the quarterback position for another decade?  Do you really want to have to face the best QB prospect since John Elway or Peyton himself for the next 10 to 12 years?  Absolutely not!  Should Jacksonville simply lay down and lose to Indy?  Absolutely.  I can hear the screams already.  The football (and sport in general) purists will say that it cheats the game to simply lay down and lose on purpose and maybe it does.

But, we need to remember that the NFL is a business, and along with that, so are the individual franchises.  It may be shrewd, but I believe it makes some sense.  If I’m in Jacksonville’s front office, I’d love the opportunity to stick it to the Colts.  If that means that some of my starters with questionable injuries are held out as an extra “precaution,” so be it.  Blaine Gabbert has been terrible this season (which is a completely different discussion for another day closer to the draft), take away the few weapons he has (even for a portion of this game), and it’s all but a guaranteed loss for the Jags.

Am I saying that Jacksonville should announce that they plan to lose this game and not even show up?  Of course not, though I feel that its in their best interest to “see how some of the younger guys fit into our plans for next year.”  Will it happen that way?  Who knows.  Would most of the players sporting a Jags uniform be pissed that I’m even discussing this?  I assume they would.  Would they know deep down that not seeing Andrew Luck twice a year is better for them as a franchise, a team, a business?… I would venture to guess that they do.  We’ll see what they think come Sunday.

Little Caesars Bowl

Purdue (-2) vs. Western Michigan – O/U (62.5) 4:30 EST on ESPN

Purdue (6-6) barely beat Ohio State and Illinois at home and got embarrassed by Michigan 36-14. Western Michigan (7-5) barely lost to Illinois away and got trounced by Michigan 34-10. Seems like a close match.

Purdue likes to run the ball and (try to) play defense. They are 39th in the nation in rushing, which doesn’t stand out, but understand that it’s tough to run the ball on Big 10. Purdue’s weakness is in run defense, but surprise! Western Michigan doesn’t run the ball. (86th in the nation)

Western Michigan is 8th in the nation in passing yards. Junior quarterback Alex Carder threw for 529 yards and 7 touchdowns against Toledo and has the nation’s leading receiver in yards per game to throw to in Jordan White. That said, the MAC doesn’t exactly believe in defense, especially Toledo.

Purdue had the moxie to beat Ohio State in overtime late in the season. Yes, the Buckeyes didn’t have their strongest year, but a win over the Buckeyes is still a win over the Buckeyes.

Western Michigan didn’t play the MAC’s 2 best teams: Ohio and Temple. They lost to the best MAC team they played (Northern Illinois) 51-22. I’m not impressed.

Purdue will pick off Alex Carder at least twice tonight and roll to a double digit victory. Purdue’s defense will give their offense shorts fields to capitalize on.  Western Michigan will put up a couple late touchdowns, but Purdue will wear-out Western Michigan’s defense in the run game.

Prediction – Purdue 35 – Western Michigan 24

Pick – Purdue (-2) and Under (62.5)

Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s passing record by 3 yards last night in a rout of the Falcons (5,087). Tom Brady will also, most likely, break Marino’s record next weekend. Are we in an age, with rule changes that discourage defenders from laying a finger on receivers, where half of the league will soon be breaking 5,000?

Lamar Odom is 2-16 from the field in his first 2 games as a Maverick. The Defending Champs are 0-2. Odom has come off the bench in both games, only to play the most minutes of anyone on the court. Perhaps starting Odom over the mighty Brendan Haywood would be good idea to get his shot going from the get-go. Sometimes something as simple as starting the game will win over a player’s focus.

The Denver Broncos are in a “win-and-you’re-in” scenario this Sunday at 4:30 in Denver against the Kansas City Chiefs. Is there any other quarterback you’d rather have than Timmy Rah Rah to lead you into a Week 17 showdown? (I can think of about 15) With the Indianapolis Colts surging, is there any other team you’d rather face than the Chiefs in this scenario? (Besides St. Louis) The Broncos were embarrassed by the Bills last week, but don’t think for one second that they’re not going to play the game of their lives this Sunday.

Sunday Night Football gives us Cowboys/Giants. Winner is in the playoffs. Loser is out. My money’s on Eli. ‘Nuff Said.

The Jets need losses from the Titans (@ Texans), Raiders (vs. Chargers), and Bengals (vs. Ravens) and a victory over the Dolphins. I actually see that as a good possibility and Rex Ryan sneaking in. I think there are a few teams that would like the comfort of knowing the Jets are sitting at home in 2 weeks.

Tonight’s bowl games feature(?) 4 teams with less than 8 wins. You get the “Crappy Pizza Bowl” and the “Who Shops There?” At least one starts at 4:30 and you only have to watch 30 minutes of NFL Live, today. Does anybody else hate Mark Schlereth, Merril Hoge, and that unnecessary “Ford Explorer Touch Screen?”

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Southern Mississippi (-7) vs. Nevada – O/U (64)

Nevada is 8th in the nation in rushing and 30th in the nation in passing with their the Pistol Offense. Freshman Cody Fajaro is the better runner of two Nevada quarterbacks, while Senior Tyler Lantrip is the more experienced passer. Fajaro will start.

Fajardo has 680 yards rushing, while running backs Lampford Mark and Mike Ball each have 700+ on the ground.

Southern Miss is 20th against the run, though.

Nevada is 64th against the run and 56th against the pass

Southern Miss is 32nd in passing and 23rd in rushing.

Southern Miss went 6-2 in an underrated conference.

Nevada lost to every team they played this year that knew how to put up points. Southern Miss knows how to put up points. Against the Wolfpack’s below average defense, expect the Golden Eagles to score in the upper 40’s. Nevada’s run heavy offense won’t be able to keep up.

Southern Mississippi is coming off a major upset behind Senior Quarterback Austin Davis against an undefeated Houston team in the Conference USA Championship.

Nevada is coming off a 56-3 victory over the mighty Idaho Vandals (2-10).

I have to take the Senior quarterback in his final college game over a mediocre defense, a good rushing defense against the Nevada rushing attack, and the team coming off one if its school’s most impressive victories in school history.

Prediction – Southern Miss 45 – Nevada 30

Pick – Southern Miss (-7) and the Over (63)

Cody Journell, a red-shirt sophomore kicker for the Virginia Tech Hokies, and two friends were arrested without bail in Blacksburg for entering men’s basketball player Dorenzo Hudson and roommate Sean Allen’s apartment in an attempt to recover allegedly stolen marijuana.

One of Giles County’s finest, Journell is one of two scholarship kickers in Virginia Tech history and had a chance at the NFL. In case you were wondering, he is not majoring in Common Sense or Criminal Law. He’s in the College of “Where’s my mutha fuckin weed?”  in the Illegal Forestry Department. Probably not much longer.

One of Journell’s accomplices, Matthew Dunton, was later apprehended with over $2,000 in cash and marijuana paraphernalia.  Dunton, reportedly, isn’t majoring in “Hide that shit.”

During the altercation, Dunton knocked on Hudson’s door with a pizza box containing an Airsoft Gun while the other two pussies hid in the bushes. When the door was opened, the thugs entered the building to find no Allen and no sign of their weed. Journell, not smart enough to realize that Hudson knew who he was and what they did was highly illegal, sped off with his 3 friends.

It is rumored that Hudson and Allen later found Dunton and gave him a couple backhands to the face, but neither are being charged in the incident.

Worst of all, Dunton never got his “mutha fuckin weed” and Virginia Tech is without one of its most outstanding individuals.

1) 2012 National Championship – the USC Trojans are one of the favorites to compete for the BCS National Championship IF Barkley stayed for his senior season. Don’t you get a little excited thinking about LSU/USC in Miami?

2) Andrew Luck – Andrew Luck is the #1 pick in the draft. Robert Griffin III could very well have been drafted ahead of him as well. Be the #3 QB taken in 2011 or the #1 pick in the 2012 draft? Easy choice.

3) Money – Barkley’s father, Les, owns an insurance company. Matt is and will always be set in the monetary area. That being said, Matt will surely sign an insurance policy which will pay him big bucks if he sustains an injury during his senior season that prevents him from playing quarterback in the NFL.

4) Lane Kiffin – Kiffin is a players’ coach. Surely, you’d rather stay and hang out with Lane than your 85 year old grandfather, Joe Paterno.

5) It’s L.A. – L.A. or Minnesota/Jacksonville/St. Louis? You can spend another year in L.A. around girls in bikinis or go to Minnesota with girls in Parkas, Jacksonville with the retired old people, or St. Louis in the Midwest where nothing good happens. He’s a star in Las Angeles. Why go be a rookie somewhere too soon?

6) The Ladies – Who hasn’t made a terrible career or life decision because of a woman? Rumor has it that his g/f hasn’t finished school.

7) He’s Beautiful – No homo, but wouldn’t he stay another year? I mean, wouldn’t he?

8 ) The Piece of Paper – Barkley already received his Bachelor’s degree. Raised in a family where Church and School are high priorities, it’s no surprise that he wants to stay with his girlfriend in SoCal and work on his Master’s.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl

Boise St. (-14) vs. Arizona St. (O/U – 67)

It’s an absolute joke that Boise State (11-1) was relegated to this bowl instead of a BCS bowl. Likewise, it’s a joke that Arizona State (6-6) gets to PLAY in a bowl.

Arizona State beat two ranked teams, USC (#23) and Missouri (#21), early in the season. Both teams weren’t ranked in the final regular season poll.

Arizona State lost to UCLA (6-6), Washington State (4-8), and Arizona (4-8).

In only one game did the Sun Devils score less than 24 points this season, against Illinois, where they turned the ball over thrice against the 21st ranked defense in the nation.

The Broncos have the 10th ranked defense in football, but take in mind that the two good offenses that they played, TCU and San Diego State, put up 36 and 35 points, respectively, on them. Arizona State and San Diego State have comparable offenses, and I’d even give the Sun Devils the edge.

Boise State is in the Top 10 in 3rd down efficiency, Turnovers, Passing Yards, Points Allowed, Points Scored, and First Downs.

Arizona State is 107th in the nation against the pass, 57th in turnovers (21 turnovers lost),  and 64th in points allowed. They play in the pass happy Pac 10, where everybody knows how to score. You can’t say the same about Boise.

Arizona State’s Head Coach, Dennis Erickson, is fired after this game. He’s got nothing to lose. The Sun Devils will throw the hell out of the ball tonight. This is Kellen Moore’s final chance to showcase himself for the NFL. Expect him to throw the hell out of the ball, as well. There will be turnovers, deep touchdown passes, and tons of points scored in the MAACO Bowl.

Expect the Broncos to score 35-42 points and the Sun Devils to respond with 21-28.

Underdogs are 3-1 in this year’s bowl games. There have been 3 overs and 2 unders.

Prediction – Boise State 42 – Arizona State 28

Pick – Arizona State (+14) and the Over (67)