Music City Bowl – 6:40 – ESPN

Mississippi State (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest – O/U (48)

Don’t let their record fool you. 4 of Mississippi State’s 6 losses came to ranked teams. 3 of them (LSU, Arkansas, and Alabama) were ranked in the top 5 near the end of the season. Georgia and Auburn, their other 2 losses, are currently ranked

Mississippi State (6-6), whose defense ranks 18th in the nation, held LSU to just 19 points and Alabama to 24.

The Bulldogs’ weakness is at the Quarterback position. Neither Senior Chris Self nor Sophomore Tyler Russell have performed well. They HAVE been going up against SEC defenses, so they may have an easier time against lesser athletes this evening.

After facing SEC defenses all year long, Senior RB Vick Ballard is going to have a field day today for Mississippi State. He averages 5.6 yards per carry. Look for he and Sophomore LaDarius Perkins (5 YPC) to get the ball on the ground MANY times.

Wake Forest’s (6-6) only real “strength,” and I use quotations for a reason, is in the passing game, as they are below average in almost every offensive and defensive category. Sophomore Tanner Price has completed 60% of his passes for 2800 yards and 20 touchdowns. He has thrown just 6 interceptions on 376 attempts. The Demon Deacons don’t turn the ball over very much altogether, either.

Senior running back Brandon Pendergrass has rushed for 333 yards over the last 3 games. If the Demon Deacons want to win, they’ll have to run the ball well.

I have to give the Bulldogs the nod with the strength of their competition. If you can hold Alabama to 24 points, you can hold Wake Forest to 24. Wake Forest hasn’t had a victory that’s impressed me besides an early season win over Florida State, but their passing attack is enough to put up a few points.

Prediction – Mississippi State 31 – Wake Forest 20.

Pick – Over (48)

Pinstripe  Bowl – 3:20 – ESPN

Iowa State (-1) vs. Rutgers – O/U (44.5)

Iowa State (6-6) has played one of the toughest schedules in college football, playing 7 ranked teams. Most notably, they beat a #2 Oklahoma State late in the season, ending the Cowboys’ hopes at a National Championship. They also beat a, then ranked, Texas Tech team 41-7. Iowa State’s 6-6 record is completely misleading. Only one of their losses came to an unranked team, Missouri, which was ranked early on.

Rutgers (8-4) has been completely inconsistent through the season, losing to North Carolina before rattling off 4 straight wins, only to lose two straight to Louisville and West Virginia. WVU was the only ranked team they played all season.

Iowa State Freshman QB Jared Barnett led the Cyclones to their victories over ranked Texas Tech and Oklahoma State after replacing Junior Steele Jantz. In both games, he ran for over 75 yards, showcasing his ability to make plays. He is the second leading rusher on the team, with 435 yards in only 7 games.

The Scarlet Knights can’t decide who to start at quarterback. Freshman Gary Nova has split time with Sophomore Chas Dodd. Both are pocket passers allergic to stepping outside of the pocket.

Mohammed Sanu is Rutgers’ play-maker at Wide Receiver. He has 109 receptions for 1144 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Jawan Jamison, the 5′8″, 198 pound Rutgers running back has struggled this season, averaging only 3.8 yards on 204 carries. They’d surely like to use him more today against a 100th ranked Iowa State rushing defense.

The Scarlet Knights’ defense is their strong-point, aside from the fact that they play in the offensively challenged Big East. Ranked 12th in the nation, they allow only an impressive 18.8 ppg.

This one is a no-brainer. Iowa State had an exponentially harder schedule and managed to beat some good Big 12 teams. Rutgers struggles to run the football and complete passes and their defense has to chase Jared Barnett around. Take Iowa State by 1, 2, 5, 10, or 20 – whatever the line is. This is the lock of the week. That said, I probably just jinxed it. Oh well.

Prediction – Iowa State 37 – Rutgers 17.

Pick – Iowa State (-1) and Over (44.5)

Armed Forces Bowl – 12:00 – ESPN

Tulsa (-1.5) vs. BYU – O/U (57.5)

BYU (9-3) has 3 losses to decent teams – TCU, Texas, and Utah. They have won 8 of their last 9.

All of Tulsa’s (8-4) 4 losses came to top 10 teams – Oklahoma State, Houston, Oklahoma, and Boise State.

Tulsa’s Senior QB G.J. Kinne, coming off a 3600 yard performance last year, has thrown for only 2800 this year, but has attempted 100 less passes. He is completing a higher percentage of passes and has only been sacked 11 times all season. His offense ranks 41st in passing and has scored the 23rd most points in college football. Kinne can also move the chains with his feet. BYU is 28th against the pass.

Tulsa rolls with dual RB’s, Ja’Terian Douglas and Trey Watts. The combination has led Tulsa to be the 23rd ranked rushing attack. BYU is 23rd against the run.

BYU’s strength is on defense. Allowing only 20.3 points on defense, they come in at 23rd in the nation.

Junior Riley Nelson has played better for BYU than Sophomore Jake Heaps, who had 9 touchdown passes and 8 picks, and has completed 61% of his passes for 16 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. Riley will start and loves to make plays with his legs as well. Against a Tulsa defense which is 118th in the nation against the pass, expect Riley to put up big numbers.

Tulsa has played a REALLY weak schedule outside of their 4 blowout losses to Top 10 teams. BYU is strong defensively, matches up extremely well against Tulsa’s strength’s and weaknesses, and has played well behind Riley. I like Kinne, but I think BYU will be able to get after him a little bit and make plays on the defensive end.

Prediction – BYU 31 – Tulsa – 21

Pick – BYU (+1.5) and Under (57.5)