Archive for December, 2011

Quick Hitting Saturday Bowl Predictions

December 31st, 2011

I’m going to quick hit you with these because my girlfriend pulled the whole “I don’t feel like I have a boyfriend anymore. Let’s DOOOO something” routine on me this morning. Happy New Year!

Meineke Car Care Bowl – 12:00 – ESPN

Texas A&M  (-9.5) vs. Northwestern – O/U (71)

Prediction – Texas A&M 41 – Northwestern 28

Pick – Texas A&M (-9.5)

Hyundai Sun Bowl – 2:00 – CBS

Georgia Tech (-2) vs. Utah – O/U (49)

Prediction – Georgia Tech 31 – Utah 20

Pick – Georgia Tech (-2) and Over (49)

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – 3:30 – ESPN

Illinois (-2.5) vs. UCLA – O/U (46.5)

Prediction – Illinois 24 – UCLA 21

Pick – Illinois (-2.5)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – 3:30 – ABC

Vanderbilt (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati – O/U (49)

Prediction – Vanderbilt 30 – Cincinnati 28

Pick – Over (49)

Chick-Fil-A Bowl – 7:30 – ESPN

Auburn (-3) vs. Virginia – O/U (49)

Prediction – Auburn 24 – Virginia 17

Pick – Auburn (-3)

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Music City Bowl Points and Prediction

December 30th, 2011

Music City Bowl – 6:40 – ESPN

Mississippi State (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest – O/U (48)

Don’t let their record fool you. 4 of Mississippi State’s 6 losses came to ranked teams. 3 of them (LSU, Arkansas, and Alabama) were ranked in the top 5 near the end of the season. Georgia and Auburn, their other 2 losses, are currently ranked

Mississippi State (6-6), whose defense ranks 18th in the nation, held LSU to just 19 points and Alabama to 24.

The Bulldogs’ weakness is at the Quarterback position. Neither Senior Chris Self nor Sophomore Tyler Russell have performed well. They HAVE been going up against SEC defenses, so they may have an easier time against lesser athletes this evening.

After facing SEC defenses all year long, Senior RB Vick Ballard is going to have a field day today for Mississippi State. He averages 5.6 yards per carry. Look for he and Sophomore LaDarius Perkins (5 YPC) to get the ball on the ground MANY times.

Wake Forest’s (6-6) only real “strength,” and I use quotations for a reason, is in the passing game, as they are below average in almost every offensive and defensive category. Sophomore Tanner Price has completed 60% of his passes for 2800 yards and 20 touchdowns. He has thrown just 6 interceptions on 376 attempts. The Demon Deacons don’t turn the ball over very much altogether, either.

Senior running back Brandon Pendergrass has rushed for 333 yards over the last 3 games. If the Demon Deacons want to win, they’ll have to run the ball well.

I have to give the Bulldogs the nod with the strength of their competition. If you can hold Alabama to 24 points, you can hold Wake Forest to 24. Wake Forest hasn’t had a victory that’s impressed me besides an early season win over Florida State, but their passing attack is enough to put up a few points.

Prediction – Mississippi State 31 – Wake Forest 20.

Pick – Over (48)

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Pinstripe Bowl Points and Prediction

December 30th, 2011

Pinstripe  Bowl – 3:20 – ESPN

Iowa State (-1) vs. Rutgers – O/U (44.5)

Iowa State (6-6) has played one of the toughest schedules in college football, playing 7 ranked teams. Most notably, they beat a #2 Oklahoma State late in the season, ending the Cowboys’ hopes at a National Championship. They also beat a, then ranked, Texas Tech team 41-7. Iowa State’s 6-6 record is completely misleading. Only one of their losses came to an unranked team, Missouri, which was ranked early on.

Rutgers (8-4) has been completely inconsistent through the season, losing to North Carolina before rattling off 4 straight wins, only to lose two straight to Louisville and West Virginia. WVU was the only ranked team they played all season.

Iowa State Freshman QB Jared Barnett led the Cyclones to their victories over ranked Texas Tech and Oklahoma State after replacing Junior Steele Jantz. In both games, he ran for over 75 yards, showcasing his ability to make plays. He is the second leading rusher on the team, with 435 yards in only 7 games.

The Scarlet Knights can’t decide who to start at quarterback. Freshman Gary Nova has split time with Sophomore Chas Dodd. Both are pocket passers allergic to stepping outside of the pocket.

Mohammed Sanu is Rutgers’ play-maker at Wide Receiver. He has 109 receptions for 1144 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Jawan Jamison, the 5′8″, 198 pound Rutgers running back has struggled this season, averaging only 3.8 yards on 204 carries. They’d surely like to use him more today against a 100th ranked Iowa State rushing defense.

The Scarlet Knights’ defense is their strong-point, aside from the fact that they play in the offensively challenged Big East. Ranked 12th in the nation, they allow only an impressive 18.8 ppg.

This one is a no-brainer. Iowa State had an exponentially harder schedule and managed to beat some good Big 12 teams. Rutgers struggles to run the football and complete passes and their defense has to chase Jared Barnett around. Take Iowa State by 1, 2, 5, 10, or 20 – whatever the line is. This is the lock of the week. That said, I probably just jinxed it. Oh well.

Prediction – Iowa State 37 – Rutgers 17.

Pick – Iowa State (-1) and Over (44.5)

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Armed Forces Bowl Points and Prediction

December 30th, 2011

Armed Forces Bowl – 12:00 – ESPN

Tulsa (-1.5) vs. BYU – O/U (57.5)

BYU (9-3) has 3 losses to decent teams – TCU, Texas, and Utah. They have won 8 of their last 9.

All of Tulsa’s (8-4) 4 losses came to top 10 teams – Oklahoma State, Houston, Oklahoma, and Boise State.

Tulsa’s Senior QB G.J. Kinne, coming off a 3600 yard performance last year, has thrown for only 2800 this year, but has attempted 100 less passes. He is completing a higher percentage of passes and has only been sacked 11 times all season. His offense ranks 41st in passing and has scored the 23rd most points in college football. Kinne can also move the chains with his feet. BYU is 28th against the pass.

Tulsa rolls with dual RB’s, Ja’Terian Douglas and Trey Watts. The combination has led Tulsa to be the 23rd ranked rushing attack. BYU is 23rd against the run.

BYU’s strength is on defense. Allowing only 20.3 points on defense, they come in at 23rd in the nation.

Junior Riley Nelson has played better for BYU than Sophomore Jake Heaps, who had 9 touchdown passes and 8 picks, and has completed 61% of his passes for 16 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. Riley will start and loves to make plays with his legs as well. Against a Tulsa defense which is 118th in the nation against the pass, expect Riley to put up big numbers.

Tulsa has played a REALLY weak schedule outside of their 4 blowout losses to Top 10 teams. BYU is strong defensively, matches up extremely well against Tulsa’s strength’s and weaknesses, and has played well behind Riley. I like Kinne, but I think BYU will be able to get after him a little bit and make plays on the defensive end.

Prediction – BYU 31 – Tulsa – 21

Pick – BYU (+1.5) and Under (57.5)

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Alamo Bowl Points and Prediction

December 29th, 2011

Alamo Bowl8:00 – ESPN

Baylor (-10) vs. Washington – O/U (79.5)

Baylor has little talent on the defensive end and is a well-oiled machine, averaging 43 ppg on offense.

Junior QB and Heisman winner Robert Griffin III leads Baylor’s 7th ranked offense. RG3 has passed for 4,000 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 644 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Bears Senior WR Kendall Wright has 101 receptions for an unbelievable 1572 yards and 13 touchdowns. Washington may have to triple-cover him. Junior Terrance Williams has 53 receptions for 895 yards, averaging 16.9 yards per reception.

Baylor has won its last 5.

Baylor spreads defenses out with their ability to throw the ball and opens running lanes for Terrance Ganaway, who has quietly rushed for 1347 yards.

Washington’s offense centers around RB Chris Polk. Polk averages 5.1 yards per carry and has scored 15 TD’s.

In the passing game, Price spreads the love, throwing 29 touchdown passes to 10 different receivers. Price has surpassed highly heralded Jake Locker’s numbers in just his first year at the helm.

Washington’s defense is almost as bad as Baylor’s, giving up 33 points per game.

Washington lost 3 of its last 4.

This game has the potential to hit the 100’s in points. Baylor may score 60. Go with the Heisman Award winner over the less-experienced Price. Baylor doesn’t play enough defense to EXPECT them to win by 10. Go Over and skip the Spread.

Prediction – Baylor 60 – Washington 45

Pick – Over (79.5)

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Champs Sports Bowl Points and Prediction

December 29th, 2011

Champs Sports Bowl – 5:30 – ESPN

Florida State (-3) vs Notre Dame – O/U (46.5)

Florida State has a dominating defense, holding teams to 15.2 points-per-game, which comes in at 4th in the nation. Bring expectations down a LITTLE, as their schedule was offensively soft.

Florida State’s passing attack, lead by Junior quarterback E.J. Manuel, has scored 31 points-per-game. With an unsatisfactory run game (mostly because they don’t try), E.J. Manuel will be required to shoulder the load this evening.

Passing will be a tough task against Notre Dame as the fighting Irish are 33rd in the nation in pass defense. Though they faced some of the worst passing teams (Navy, Maryland, Air Force, Purdue, Boston College), they held Matt Barkley and Andrew Luck to less than 230 yards, each, through the air.

Rushing will be even tougher against the Florida State defense, which ranks 2nd nationally against the run. Notre Dame running back Cierre Wood averages 5.2 yards per carry and has racked up 1,042 yards.

Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, surely to be a Top 5 receiver taken in the 2012 NFL Draft, can attract multiple defenders and spread the field. TE Tyler Eifert is a favorite target for quarterback Tommy Rees, who has begun to share time with Andrew Hendrix. Rees will start tonight, but expect to see a little of Hendrix.

Notre Dame will have to spread the field on Florida State to be effective. Wood, Floyd, and Tyler all need to step up and make plays. If any one of them has a bad game, Notre Dame could be in trouble against the Florida State defense.

With no receivers with over 33 receptions, Florida State doesn’t have a “Go To” guy that gets 5-10 receptions per game, but they have plenty of young, talented receivers that give Manuel the ability to spread the ball around. Junior Rodney Smith (6′6″ – 216 lbs) is the Seminoles’ deep threat, averaging 16.5 yards per reception. Rashad Greene (6′1″ – 175 lbs), Kenny Shaw (5′11″ – 170 lbs), and Christian Greene (6′1″ – 201 lbs) are their speedsters.

Florida State had questionable losses to Wake Forest and Virginia. In both games, they were plagued by penalties and long 3rd downs, which they failed to convert (7-23).

Florida State is THE most penalized team in college football, averaging 69 penalty yards per-game. In a close game like this one could be, penalties could be their downfall.

Florida State is very young, but very talented. Notre Dame is experienced at the skill positions. The differences in this game will be Michael Floyd’s ability to spread out Florida State’s defense and the penalties committed by the Seminoles’ young and inexperienced team. Notre Dame will score 24-31 points and Florida State will answer with 21-28.

Prediction – Notre Dame 31 – Florida State 27

PickNotre Dame (+3) and Over (46.5)

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Most Underrated Sports Night of 2011

December 29th, 2011

“They did it! They did it! They did it! The Orioles have beaten the Red Sox!”

Gary Thorne’s words echoed through my ears for days following September 29, 2011. It wasn’t the World Series. It wasn’t Game 7. It wasn’t even a winning season for the Baltimore Orioles. But, it was the end of a roller coaster ride that was the evening of the 29th – Game 162.

I was at the bar playing in a pool league. I asked the bartender to put the Tampa Bay/New York game next to the Baltimore/Boston game. I had the feeling these games were going to be worth watching. The Rays needed a win and a Red Sox loss to make the playoffs. Into the 8th inning, down 7-0 against the Yankees and the Orioles trailing the Red Sox 3-2, it was all over. The Orioles had nothing to play for. The Rays needed more runs than they had outs left. The playoffs were set.

Then Tampa loaded the bases with no outs. Then a walk. Then a Hit-By-Pitch. Then a sac-fly. Then a 3-run homer by Evan Longoria. It was a 1 run game. In the bottom of the 9th, Dan Johnson, with just 84 at-bats in the majors and a .119 average, sent one 343 feet over the right field fence to tie the game at 7-7. By then, my pool match was over and my friend and I decided that we HAD to see what happened. Our eyes were glued to the TV’s, and to this day, I’m glad they were.

On the Orioles broadcast, you could see the Baltimore players in the dugout pointing to the score in St. Petersburg. After suffering 93 losses, down 3-2, 1 out away from their season being over – win or lose, there was something to play for. The 62-win Orioles could knock the 90-win Red Sox out of the playoffs. Chris Davis doubled. Nolan Reimold doubled. Robert Andino hit an innocent blooper to left field.

Carl Crawford, whose $142 million contract was worth more than the Orioles’ entire 40-man roster, couldn’t make a play on it. At that moment, as Nolan Reimold rounded 3rd base, an entire season of disappointment and underachievement didn’t matter. Reimold was safe and a Baltimore had the best finish that a 93 loss team could have – a walk-off hit off of one of the best closers in the game, Jonathan Papelbon, to knock their rivals out of the playoffs…. IF, the Rays could win it in extra innings.

Equal excitement was shared at Tropicana field. Take in mind, going into extras, that everyone in that stadium was staring at the BOS/BAL score. The stadium erupted when the 4-3 final showed up on the scoreboard. The 10th and 11th innings passed by innocently, until Evan Longoria sent a line drive over the shallowest fence on the field to push the Rays into the playoffs.

It was the best and possibly most underrated final day of regular season baseball that Major League Baseball could have dreamed of. For Orioles fans, it was the best night of baseball in 14 years. Some fans haven’t been alive that long.  For professional sports skeptics, the look on the Orioles players’ faces proved that it’s not all about contracts and careers. For baseball fans, it was the most unexpected roller coaster ride competition for the final Wild-Card spot on the final day of the regular season. For me, it was the most memorable sports moment of 2011.

They did it! They did it! They did it! The Orioles have beaten the Red Sox!

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And With the 2nd Pick of the 2012 NFL Draft…

December 29th, 2011

Now mind you, the Colts could very possibly end up with the first pick in next April’s draft. I just don’t see it happening that way.  So what happens if Indy misses their chance at Andrew Luck?  Before any of you Colts fans throw yourself off a cliff, I want you to consider the idea that maybe the Colts haven’t blown their chance at Luck… it’s just going to cost them quite a bit to get him.  Even while sitting just one spot below the Rams I assume it will cost Indy a pretty penny to move up and select Mr. Luck;  maybe this year’s first, second, third plus a number one next year, maybe the year after as well.  Sounds like quite a bit, but you never know.  Personally, I feel the Colts shouldn’t spend that much on a quarterback that has proven absolutely nothing on the pro level.   It’s not that I don’t believe Luck will succeed. I do. It just seems that spending that much could be detrimental to the future of this franchise.  This team simply has too many holes to mortgage their future on one guy.

So who should they take?  Matt Kalil, offensive tackle USC.  It’s not a secret that protecting Peyton Manning is now more monumental than it ever has been.  How better to do that than by taking the best tackle prospect in the draft.  Kalil has the bloodlines. His brother is a Pro-Bowler for the Panthers.  He comes from the same university as Anthony Munoz and Tony Boselli.  Just last year the Cowboys selected Tyron Smith to eventually play Left Tackle for the next decade.  Smith wasn’t good enough to beat out Kalil at USC, so he played the right side in college.  Kalil will walk into camp and take the Left Tackle position over for the next decade.  He seems like the closest thing to a sure bet in this draft.  Colts fans may say that they just drafted Anthony Castonzo (OT/Boston College) last year.  Yes you did. But Kalil is that good.  Slide Castonzo to the right and that offensive line has bookends for a decade.  That should put a smile on Peyton’s face. The Colts will have to look at guys like Quinton Coples (DE/UNC), Morris Claiborne CB (CB/LSU), Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama) and even Robert Griffin III (QB/Baylor).  The most intriguing of those listed, in my opinion, is Griffin III.  While Luck sitting behind Manning for a year or two would be a bonus, could you imagine if Griffin had that opportunity.  With his exceptional athleticism, football IQ, and obvious improvements throwing the ball, sitting behind Manning and being able to pick his brain for a couple seasons would only increase his almost unlimited potential.  That being said, top notch, game ready blindside blockers don’t come around very often either and I feel the Colts would be hard pressed not to select Kalil.  Holding onto their picks gives them a chance to start looking for replacements at DE (Freeney and Mathis aren’t getting any younger), RB (you can’t believe Donald Brown is the answer, can you?) LB (Pat Angerer is a start, but he needs help) and basically any other position on the defense.

What about the coaching staff?  Jim Caldwell probably saved his job with a couple victories at the end of the season.  Caldwell is a holdover from the Tony Dungy era.  He is a solid, steady coach.  Caldwell is not the answer in Indy, though.  If Manning is still around next year, which I would assume is pretty damn close to a given, the Colts will do all they can to win another Super Bowl.   Stability on the sidelines seems as though it would be a positive. In this instance, though, I’m not sold on the fact that it is.  This team looked so uneasy and lackluster for the majority of this season.  Like a few other teams (off the top of my head the Giants, the Cardinals, the Bears, etc) it seems this franchise might be better off shaking things up and bringing in a new regime.  Can the Colts go to the playoffs next year with Caldwell as the head coach?  Most likely. There is plenty of veteran talent on this team and that should be enough to help right the ship a bit.  If this team really wants to get ready for the future, but still play for today, it might be time to bring in a coach like Jeff Fisher; someone who is good with the veterans, but is a good enough teacher for the next bunch of guys.  Indy has had success putting together a winner in the past, I’m interested to see how they intend to continue that trend.  This off-season should be an interesting start to that process.

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Cryogenically Frozen Lakers

December 28th, 2011

Dave McMenamin of ESPNLasAngeles.com reports that the Las Angeles Lakers, in an attempt to freeze Kobe Bryant and Pao Gasol in their prime, took their team to a Cryotherapy facility. They stood in a room 60 degrees Fahrenheit below 0 for 1 minute, only to prepare them for the negative 200 degree room, which they stood in for 3 minutes.

I don’t know how cold -200 degrees for 3 minutes is, but I know that 32 degrees is fucking cold for 15 seconds, so my balls and I never want to know what -32 feels like. When I had a boo-boo in high school and the trainer put 32 degree ice on it, the pain was unbearable. So, I’ll pass on -60. And -200 can go fuck itself.

The point of the therapy is to slow swelling and inflammation. With a short, grueling season ahead, any help in the pain and swelling department can be helpful. Luke Walton said that he would like to use Cryotherapy during the season to see if it will help his bad back, as long as they try it out on Han Solo first.

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Holiday Bowl Points and Prediction

December 28th, 2011

Holiday Bowl – 8:00 – ESPN

Texas (-3.5) vs. California – O/U (48)

California has a well-balanced offense and a pretty good defense. They had to face some of the best offenses in college football in Stanford, USC, and Oregon. Although they were unsuccessful in those attempts, the experience against those offenses will help them to stop a very mediocre Texas offense.

Texas can’t figure out the quarterback position. Case McCoy and David Ash haven’t proven the ability to make good decisions behind center. McCoy threw 4 picks in regular season finale against Baylor and Ash has had trouble reaching the 50% completion mark.

The Longhorns will get back their leading rushers, Joe Bergeron and Malcolm Brown. 19th in the nation in rushing, Texas will try to overpower California’s 36th ranked rushing defense on the ground and avoid giving McCoy 30+ passing attempts.

The Golden Bears have won 3 of their last 4, with their lone loss coming to Stanford. Over the last 4, the have held Junior QB Zach Maynard to less than 30 pass attempts and have been more successful offensively by running the ball with Isi Sofele and C.J. Anderson. Sofele has excelled with the extra carries, averaging 142 yards over those last 4 games. Expect California to keep feeding Anderson and Sofele tonight.

The Longhorns’ defense is 42nd nationally in points allowed, playing in the high scoring Big 12.

Tonight’s match-up slightly favors Texas, as Texas has the size on offense and defensive prowess to stop California. The Golden Bears will have to play the field position game and hope for a few big plays, as I don’t expect them to sustain long drives on the Longhorns. There will be 80+ rushing attempts in this game as neither team will want to make mistakes through the air. Look for Texas to win it in the fourth quarter when their powerful running backs have worn down the California defense.

I wouldn’t touch the spread, but if you’re compelled to, take California and the points. I don’t expect a Texas blowout.

Prediction – Texas 24 – California 20

Pick – Under (48)

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