Champs Sports Bowl – 5:30 – ESPN
Florida State (-3) vs Notre Dame – O/U (46.5)
Florida State has a dominating defense, holding teams to 15.2 points-per-game, which comes in at 4th in the nation. Bring expectations down a LITTLE, as their schedule was offensively soft.
Florida State’s passing attack, lead by Junior quarterback E.J. Manuel, has scored 31 points-per-game. With an unsatisfactory run game (mostly because they don’t try), E.J. Manuel will be required to shoulder the load this evening.
Passing will be a tough task against Notre Dame as the fighting Irish are 33rd in the nation in pass defense. Though they faced some of the worst passing teams (Navy, Maryland, Air Force, Purdue, Boston College), they held Matt Barkley and Andrew Luck to less than 230 yards, each, through the air.
Rushing will be even tougher against the Florida State defense, which ranks 2nd nationally against the run. Notre Dame running back Cierre Wood averages 5.2 yards per carry and has racked up 1,042 yards.
Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, surely to be a Top 5 receiver taken in the 2012 NFL Draft, can attract multiple defenders and spread the field. TE Tyler Eifert is a favorite target for quarterback Tommy Rees, who has begun to share time with Andrew Hendrix. Rees will start tonight, but expect to see a little of Hendrix.
Notre Dame will have to spread the field on Florida State to be effective. Wood, Floyd, and Tyler all need to step up and make plays. If any one of them has a bad game, Notre Dame could be in trouble against the Florida State defense.
With no receivers with over 33 receptions, Florida State doesn’t have a “Go To” guy that gets 5-10 receptions per game, but they have plenty of young, talented receivers that give Manuel the ability to spread the ball around. Junior Rodney Smith (6′6″ – 216 lbs) is the Seminoles’ deep threat, averaging 16.5 yards per reception. Rashad Greene (6′1″ – 175 lbs), Kenny Shaw (5′11″ – 170 lbs), and Christian Greene (6′1″ – 201 lbs) are their speedsters.
Florida State had questionable losses to Wake Forest and Virginia. In both games, they were plagued by penalties and long 3rd downs, which they failed to convert (7-23).
Florida State is THE most penalized team in college football, averaging 69 penalty yards per-game. In a close game like this one could be, penalties could be their downfall.
Florida State is very young, but very talented. Notre Dame is experienced at the skill positions. The differences in this game will be Michael Floyd’s ability to spread out Florida State’s defense and the penalties committed by the Seminoles’ young and inexperienced team. Notre Dame will score 24-31 points and Florida State will answer with 21-28.
Prediction – Notre Dame 31 – Florida State 27
Pick – Notre Dame (+3) and Over (46.5)